Seat spreads CON LAB LD SportingIndex 330-335 225-230 55-58 Extrabet 330-335 228-233 57-60 Betfair 333-336 227-231 54-55.5 So all are in Tory majority territory With 325 seats being the technical threshold for a majority government tonight’s spread have the Tory number on all three markets being above the critical number – if not by very much. There hasn’t been much movement and clearly everything is being driven by the polls. Mike Smithson
WhatGas.com How will this go down in the marginals? The lead story in the Telegraph this morning is a warning by the AA that the price of a litre could “within day” hit the £1.20 a litre mark. This would make it more expensive than during the last peak in July 2008 which also coincided with Labour worst position in the opinion polls. This was looked at here in a post at the end of December when I posed the…
Opinium (Daily Express) Mar 15 Mar 8 CONSERVATIVES 39% 37% LABOUR 28% 30% LIB DEMS 16% 16% LAB to CON swing from 2005 6.5% 4.5% The first published Opinium poll for the Daily Express was only last week and now we have a second. The trend is sharply to the Tories which reinforces what we saw earlier with ICM. Opinium operates on-line with a polling panel and like other firms that operate in this way it is reporting much bigger…
BBC What this going to do to the leadership betting? A couple of month ago I started ploughing money on the post-December 31 2010 option in the Brown exit date betting after the PM had made comments similar to his interview on Woman’s Hour this morning. Even if he’s defeated and Cameron has a majority it’s seems clear to me that he is not going to give up the job he strove after for so long. So what’s this going…
Betfair Politics What will it take to make NOM the favourite? The latest price from Ladbrokes on the election ending with no party having an overall majority has moved over the past seven days from 7/4 to 13/8. Thus the profit from a £100 winning bet would be £162.50 today rather than the £175 of last Monday. So there has been a tightening but not by very much. On the Betfair overall majority market the NOM of a week ago…
ICM: Oct 8 2009 CON 2009 LAB 2009 LD 2009 Voted CON in 2005 94% 0% 2% Voted LAB in 2005 20% 62% 11% Voted LD in 2005 14% 12% 68% ICM: March 11 2010 CON 2010 LAB 2010 LD 2010 Voted CON in 2005 88% 2% 6% Voted LAB in 2005 15% 70% 9% Voted LD in 2005 10% 7% 75% Does this tell the story of the squeeze in the polls? One of the great polling innovations since…
Gallup polls 1970 CON LAB LIB January 48% 41% 7% February 48% 41% 9% March 46% 41% 9% April 47% 42% 7% May 42% 49% 7% June 42% 49% 7% Election: June 18th 46.2% 43.8% 7.6% Can the blues take comfort from Heath’s 1970 victory? Just look at the table showing the Gallup polls in 1970 in the six months ahead of the general election. Look in particular at how Heath’s Conservatives were well ahead until the May-June period when…
ICM Sunday Telegraph Mar 11 Mar 4 CONSERVATIVES 38% 40% LABOUR 31% 31% LIB DEMS 21% 19% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5% 6% But it’s Clegg’s party not Labour that benefits The first of tonight’s polls, ICM for the Telegraph, provides a real boost for the Lib Dems who are gathered in Birmingham for their Spring conference. The 21% shares is only 1.7% down on what they achieved last time and must give them real hopes of hanging…