Who won final debate? ICM AR YouGov ComRes Populus Cameron 35% 36% 41% 35% 38% Clegg 27% 30% 32% 33% 38% Brown 29% 23% 25% 26% 25% Debate polling – the final figures All of the pollsters agree that it was Dave wot did it – though Populus has him sharing the top slot with Clegg. Meanwhile the phone pollster that operates in a very similar manner, ICM for the Guardian, had the Lib Dem leader in bottom place. Martin…
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Angus Reid – The Economist Apr 26 Apr 20 CONSERVATIVES 33% 32% LIB DEMS 30% 33% LABOUR 23% 23% Above is a new Angus Reid poll for this week’s Economist. Note that it is a touch out of date with the fieldwork ending last Monday. As well as the Tories moving up and the Lib Dems moving down a key feature is that Labour are still down at 23%. The firm continues to record the smallest shares for Brown’s party….
TRS-BMRB Apr 27 Apr 20 CONSERVATIVES 34% 34% LIB DEMS 30% 30% LABOUR 27% 29% There’s a new poll out from TNS-BMRB – the firm that operates on a face to face basis but where interviewees key in their voting intention responses in a confidential manner on a computer. Not much change on the previous week apart from the drop in the Labour share. Note that fieldwork finished on Tuesday – the day before Mr. Brown went to Rochdale. The…
Is this going to be Clegg’s final week pitch? I’ve long taken the view that the most critical four and a half minutes in this election campaign will be the three 90 second wind-up statements by Brown, Cameron and Clegg at the end of tomorrow night’s debate. Each one will use it as a straight appeal setting out the core reasons why voters should support them and their parties. What they say will frame the final days of campaigning. So…
Conservatives lead by 4, Labour & Lib Dems tied ComRes/ITV-The Independent Apr 26 Apr 25 CONSERVATIVES 33% 32% LIB DEMS 29% 31% LABOUR 29% 28% Can we be careful not to discuss postal voting poll subsets as this may be illegal – thanks. Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame) www.electiongame.co.uk The UK game will be released shortly
Conservative lead 8 with Populus, 4 with YouGov Labour up to second place with YouGov Populus/The Times Apr 27 Apr 20 CONSERVATIVES 36% 32% LIB DEMS 28% 31% LABOUR 27% 28% YouGov/The Sun Apr 27 Apr 26 CONSERVATIVES 33% 33% LIB DEMS 28% 29% LABOUR 29% 28% Double Carpet (Twitter:@electiongame) www.electiongame.co.uk The UK game will be released shortly
538.com Nate Silver’s view of the Uniform National Swing Nate Silver, the elections expert behind the renowned US polling site, Fivethreeeight.com, has been taking a close interest in the mathematics of the UK’s uniform nation swing mechanism for converting poll shares into seats won. He argues: “…. these forecasts are based on a questionable assumption and may understate, perhaps substantially, the magnitude of gains that might be realized by the Tories and by the LibDems. In particular, they are based…