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Category: General Election

Leader ratings: How Ed Miliband compares?

Leader ratings: How Ed Miliband compares?

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Can a LOTO with low ratings ever win? Today, as reported on the previous thread, we’ve had the Ipsos-MORI September political monitor for Reuters. The voting intention figures were CON 35 (+1): LAB 37 (-3): LD 13 (-2) showing the changes from August. The poll also includes MORI leader satisfaction ratings which have been asked in the same form for nearly a third of a century. The firm’s question format “How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way ……

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Hurry! Get your money on a 2015 election at evens or better

Hurry! Get your money on a 2015 election at evens or better

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May 7th 2015 must now be pretty certain Last night the coalition five-year fixed-term Parliaments Bill completed its final stages in the House of Lords after peers dropped an attempt to include a provision under which would mean it would have to be renewed after every election. A compromise was reached under which a committee will be set up to look at the workings of fixed-term Parliaments in 2020. For gamblers this means that the next general election is now…

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Would Labour get a majority on the Populus figures?

Would Labour get a majority on the Populus figures?

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What will the boundaries do for Labour’s target? For various reasons I’m just catching up with today’s Times Populus poll which shows very little change on what the firm reported in July. An interesting question is whether a Labour 4 point lead would now be enough for a majority? A few weeks after the 2010 general election Professior John Curtice produded figures suggesting that the Conservatives would need a margin of 11.2% in votes over Labour to secure a majority…

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Could the “notional 2010 result” have the Tories just 9 seats short?

Could the “notional 2010 result” have the Tories just 9 seats short?

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Will the blues make their “first 2015 gains” next week Although it is not expressed in these terms the first part of the process leading up to the 2015 general election starts next week with the publication of the proposed new electoral map for England. This will set out in detail the precise boundaries that it is proposed that the 2015 election will be fought on. The plans for Scotland are due next month while the Wales will have to…

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Should you be taking the Hills’ 2-1 hung parliament bet?

Should you be taking the Hills’ 2-1 hung parliament bet?

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Surely there’s a greater chance than this of it happening? Following the PB survey earlier in the week on the likely outcome of the general election I’ve been combing through the bookie sites trying to find the best bet on a hung parliament And the most attractive price is the 2/1 from William Hills against “no overall majority” which means the same thing. Other bookies and Betfair have much tighter prices. With a likely strong showing for the SNP in…

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Without Scotland can Labour ever win again?

Without Scotland can Labour ever win again?

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BBC news As I reported last night I had an accident yesterday and am just recovering quietly at home – so there’ll be limited posting from me for the next day or so. The big polling news in the past 24 hours has been the Ipsos-MORI survey of Scotland which shows a big swing to the SNP, These are the figures:- Westminster voting intention (May 2010 election) SNP 42% (+22%) Lab 33% (-9%) Con 15% (-2%) LD 6% (-13%) Other…

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Does this put YouGov’s daily movements into context?

Does this put YouGov’s daily movements into context?

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Remember Scotland May 5 2011? There was as lot of excitement on Tuesday night when the News International/YouGov daily poll came out showing the Tories on 39% – just one point behind Labour on 40% – the smallest Labour lead for months. Last night’s poll had it looking differently although the changes, Labour up 2 the Tories down 2, were within the margin of error. But how much notice should we take of the daily changes from the online pollster…

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What do you think will be the outcome of the next general election?

What do you think will be the outcome of the next general election?

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Please vote in this special PB poll Putting aside your own party allegiance what do you think is the most likely outcome of the next general election? A Labour majority Labour with most seats but short of a majority The Conservatives with most seats but short of a majority A Conservative majority None of the above