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Category: General Election

Will transport be a key battleground at the next election?

Will transport be a key battleground at the next election?

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The Observer is reporting that George Osborne is being urged to make policy U-turn as parties fear ‘tax on commuting’ will destroy support in marginal seats. Several MPs have gone on the record to urge a change in policy. One Kent MP – Sir John Stanley, the member for Tonbridge and Malling – accused ministers of “exploiting commuters” and using rail fares as “a disguised form of taxation”. The Conservative MP for Harlow in Essex, Robert Halfon, said: “I have already…

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Why do Governments always seem to lose popularity?

Why do Governments always seem to lose popularity?

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A guest slot by Nick Palmer During the last Government, Mike used to point out that governing parties in Britain nearly always decline in popularity after the initial honeymoon, so the writing was on the wall for Labour after 2005. On the Labour side we didn’t like to admit it, but we knew he was right. With rare exceptions (1983 after the Falklands is the glaring one), governments are on the slide within a few years and never really recover….

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Will the ICM Wisdom Index poll impede the Boris band-wagon?

Will the ICM Wisdom Index poll impede the Boris band-wagon?

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His “best PM” same as Ed but 4% below Dave ICM Wisdom Index Best PM rating: Dave 24%/Miliband and Boris 20%/Clegg 6%. bit.ly/QQVVds — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 11, 2012 ICM Wisdom Index for S Telegraph has CON 31(nc): LAB 38(nc): LD 17(nc). With Boris as leader the Tories would be up 1 with LAB down 1. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 11, 2012 ICM Wisdom Index with Boris named as CON leader. CON 32+1:LAB 38-1:LD 17 nc. So Boris…

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General election betting – most seats

General election betting – most seats

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Bestbetting odds comparison site The best value bet, surely, is 10/11 on Labour The chart shows the trend of best prices on the General Election most seats markets. This is not one I have entered yet simply because I don’t want to lock money up for two and a half years. Some people are punting and the value bet at the moment must be the 10/11 price on Labour winning most seats. The boundary changes were/are not the universal panacea…

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LAB lead down to just 1pc with Boris as leader – YouGov

LAB lead down to just 1pc with Boris as leader – YouGov

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Now some data to drive the Boris for leader campaign? YouGov has just revealed further data from its latest which suggests that the Tories would be doing markedly better if Boris Johnson rather than David Cameron was the leader. It now appears that the poll had THREE different voting intention questions which produced very different outcomes. The standard one reported overnight had CON 32: LAB 43: LD 10. Then a second question was put which said “Imagine that at the…

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Will this be a vote winner for the Lib Dems?

Will this be a vote winner for the Lib Dems?

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The Independent is reporting that A government-wide spending review is to be scaled back because Nick Clegg is refusing to commit to billions of pounds of further cuts in the welfare budget…whilst  the Liberal Democrats are likely to fight the election on a pledge to clear the remaining deficit through tax rises such as a mansion tax on homes worth more than £2m and a cut in the 40 per cent tax relief on pension contributions enjoyed by higher rate taxpayers….

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ICM unchanged at CON 34, LAB 39, LD 14

ICM unchanged at CON 34, LAB 39, LD 14

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The July poll from ICM for the Guardian has all three parties unchanged. CON 34/LAB39/LD14 bit.ly/LIeoDq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2012 ICM. With Blair as leader it would beLAB 36%(-3), CON 34%(nc) LD 15%9+1) and others 14%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2012 ICM: Dave/Geroge trusted by 40% on the economy compared with 29% for the Two Eds. Last month the lead was 9% bit.ly/LIeoDq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2012 Just 33% tell ICM that…

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Labour’s MORI lead up by 4

Labour’s MORI lead up by 4

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Labour up 4 in the July political monitor from MORI. It’s LAB 44 CON 31% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 18, 2012 Lib Dems up 2% to 12% with MORI – a trend seen in all the recent phone polls — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 18, 2012 Today’s 13% lead for Labour from MORI is the biggest for the party since the election that never was in October 2007 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 18, 2012 Cameron’s net leader rating…

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