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Category: General Election

David Herdson says the next general election could still be wide open

David Herdson says the next general election could still be wide open

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What we could have is an anti-unpopularity contest The YouGov poll last month which showed that a Boris Johnson-led Conservative Party would be neck-and-neck with Labour in vote share was perhaps not too much of a surprise.  After all, Johnson is among the most popular of current politicians and outpolled his party by some 20% in the London elections last year.  Whether such hypotheticals would translate into reality were Johnson PM is a different matter.  He currently holds a role…

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Nate Silver on UK politics

Nate Silver on UK politics

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New PB Thread: Nate Silver on UK Politics.www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/arch… twitter.com/TSEofPB/status… — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) April 17, 2013   In recent years, following the advice of Nate Silver, has been very profitable. Over the weekend he was interviewed in the Times (££) on a variety of subjects, on the subject of UK politics, the following exchange took place What about Britain’s coalition government, I (the interviewer) say. Will it survive? He thinks for a moment. “So, I’ve never quite understood,” he says. “What are…

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If LAB in its key targets can hang onto most the 2010 LDs who have switched then Ed Miliband becomes PM

If LAB in its key targets can hang onto most the 2010 LDs who have switched then Ed Miliband becomes PM

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The Wikipedia chart showing UK opinion polls since GE2010. goo.gl/YLC01 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 15, 2013 Can Lynton Crosby do anything to change that? The next general election is actually very simple. It all comes down to whether LAB can hang on to the GE2010 LD voters who for two and a half years have been telling pollsters that they’ve switched. LAB doesn’t need to focus on many of them. The only ex-LDs that matter are in the…

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Which election will we have in 2015? Election 1979 or Election 1997?

Which election will we have in 2015? Election 1979 or Election 1997?

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Harry Hayfield ahead of today’s BBC coverage Throughout Saturday BBC Parliament will be replaying the 1979 general election programme, as a build up to the funeral of Baroness Thatcher on Wednesday. The 1979 election is, to date, the only general election in modern electoral history (since 1950) to have been triggered by a vote of no confidence in the government and the polling (done by Gallup) makes for interesting reading for the Liberal Democrats. March 1977 saw the Labour government…

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Labour’s YouGov lead down to 8pc – but it is too early to say that it’s Philpott, welfare, Mrs Thatcher or just normal margin of error

Labour’s YouGov lead down to 8pc – but it is too early to say that it’s Philpott, welfare, Mrs Thatcher or just normal margin of error

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Chart showing trend in YouGov daily poll April 3 – April 9 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 10, 2013 Today’s YouGov daily poll has CON 33%: LAB 41%: LD 10%: Ukip 10%. So the numbers are almost back to where they were in the first survey after the Easter break – 33/41/9/10. There’s been a lot going and it’s easy to choose one of several factors and say that is the driver. But it could all just be the…

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If stepping up the rhetoric on welfare was supposed to boost CON poll ratings it has yet to work

If stepping up the rhetoric on welfare was supposed to boost CON poll ratings it has yet to work

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Welfare reform is only important electorally if it impacts on voting behaviour & so far we’ve seen no evidence of that — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 7, 2013 Ukip equal highest levels with both YouGov and Opinium New Opinium/Observer online poll without past vote weighting – LAB 38, CON28, UKIP 17, LD 8% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 6, 2013 Today’s YouGov for Sunday Times.CON 30,LAB 40,LD 11,UKIP 13.So Tories 1% above low point with firm &Ukip =ing high point….

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It’s bank holiday Monday and that means BBC Parliament is running a past general election programme – this time from 1983

It’s bank holiday Monday and that means BBC Parliament is running a past general election programme – this time from 1983

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REMINDER for Easter Monday election junkies. BBC Parliament starts showing the 1983 results programme from 10am twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2013 Watch Maggie win a 144 majority on a 1.5% reduced vote share GE1983 was held on 9 June 1983 and led to the Tories under Margaret Thatcher securing the most decisive election victory since the LAB landslide of 1945. The main electoral dynamic was that the opposition vote split almost evenly between the SDP/Liberal Alliance and…

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Ukip up 5 and the LDs up 4 as the big two fall back in ComRes phone poll

Ukip up 5 and the LDs up 4 as the big two fall back in ComRes phone poll

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Ukip up 5 & the LDs up 4 in tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy. See pie chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2013 Ukip’s 14% is the highest ever for a phone survey With the Times deciding to get rid of its monthly Populus poll there are now only regular three telephone surveys each month – ICM for the Guardian, Ipsos-MORI for the Standard and this one – ComRes for the Independent. As can be scene…

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