— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 15, 2013
Can Lynton Crosby do anything to change that?
The next general election is actually very simple. It all comes down to whether LAB can hang on to the GE2010 LD voters who for two and a half years have been telling pollsters that they’ve switched.
LAB doesnâ€™t need to focus on many of them. The only ex-LDs that matter are in the 60-70 seats that Miliband needs to win to ensure a majority.
Different pollsters measure this differently but the GE2010 LD switchers are probably worth to LAB 6-8% of the likely electorate in two years time. Add that on to the 30% of last time and there’s a mountain to climb for the Tories.
Even if the vote splits at GE2015 are 37% for both CON and LAB the much more efficient way that the red team’s vote is distributed will see Ed with most seats.
The challenge for Dave/George and their Aussie election wizard, Lynton Crosby, is how to stop this happening and at the same time appeal to those GE2010 CON voters who now say they are voting Ukip.
For many of the measures and rhetoric designed to keep potential Ukipers on the blue boat are likely to alienate the yellows who now say red.
So an EU referendum, hardline talk on immigration, or welfare scroungers are probably not going to inhibit the 2010 LD switching.
The CON effort is likely to focus on Ed Miliband personally to try to raise doubts over his suitability to enter Downing Street. If they can chip away at this then perhaps that might work but perhaps it won’t.
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