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Category: General Election

In praise of Lord Ashcroft – the UK’s leading commissioner of political polling

In praise of Lord Ashcroft – the UK’s leading commissioner of political polling

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A ludicrous attack on the UK’s leading funder of polling @lordashcroft by Peter Oborne goo.gl/BTbKw twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2013 To claim @lordashcroft has a “dangerous monopoly of political information” goes beyond hype telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/… its evidently nonsense — Sunder Katwala (@sundersays) June 12, 2013 Barmy slightly hysterical attack on @lordashcroft by Peter Oborne. Ashcroft a man who not only created wealth but kept Tory Party afloat — Stewart Jackson MP (@SJacksonMP) June 12, 2013 When it comes…

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After ICM another phone poll, Ipsos-MORI, has UKIP on 12 percent

After ICM another phone poll, Ipsos-MORI, has UKIP on 12 percent

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Balls ahead of Osbo on running nation’s finances The monthly Ipsos-MORI poll for the Evening Standard is out and sees very little change on a month ago. The firm’s UKIP share is 12% which is exactly what ICM had yesterday. In another finding Ed Balls is beating Osborne by 38% to 35% as the one thought most capable at running the nation’s finances. The leadership ratings The latest Ipsos-MORI leadership ratings with Farage down a bit but still the only…

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UKIP drop 6 pts in latest ICM phone poll

UKIP drop 6 pts in latest ICM phone poll

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Are we heading to a new normality? The June telephone poll from ICM, one of the three remaining regular surveys that carry out their fieldwork in this way, is out and sees a sharp decline for UKIP after reaching 18% last month. That poll took place while the Farage’s party was enjoying the mass of coverage following its big success in the May 2nd local elections and the good second place in the South Shields by-election. This month the limelight…

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Labour and the economy

Labour and the economy

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Voters for the last few years have said the economy is the most important issue facing Britain. Last night we had a survation poll for Labourlist which shows That nearly half of all voters (46.8%) believe that Labour “cannot be trusted with the economy”. Less than one-third (30.1%) believe that Labour can be trusted with the nation’s finances. There is further evidence that Labour isn’t trusted with the economy, as there is polling that shows that a plurality blame Labour…

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The main driver of the GE2015 outcome will be what 2010 LDs do: It’s looking very good for LAB

The main driver of the GE2015 outcome will be what 2010 LDs do: It’s looking very good for LAB

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@msmithsonpb @dpjhodges Done! — Harry Phibbs (@harryph) June 2, 2013 My wager with ConHome Harry Phibbs I’m still on holiday in Italy but that didn’t stop me getting into a wager challenge last night on Twitter with ConHome’s Harry Phibbs on the outcome of the general election. My reading is simple: this is all about the 2010 Lib Dem voters who made up just under one quarter of the electorate that day. Unless there’s a massive turnaround it’s highly unlikely…

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Dave should remember this polling before he decides to withdraw from the debates

Dave should remember this polling before he decides to withdraw from the debates

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  There’s a report in the Independent this morning which says Amid increasing signs that the Conservatives would pull the plug on televised leaders’ debates if Mr Farage was included, the UKIP leader said he would be prepared to challenge efforts to stop him taking part in the courts. From January this year, there was polling on the debates that should make the Conservatives wary of pulling the plug on the debates. There’s a new poll out tonight by ComRes for…

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Who would take over as Labour Leader if Ed fell short?

Who would take over as Labour Leader if Ed fell short?

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  I expect Labour to win most seats at the next general election and for Ed Miliband to be Prime Minister. The bookies make it the most likely event but not a certainty. They price it as a 1/2 shot that Labour will return the most MPs at the next election and 4/6 that Ed Miliband makes it to 10 Downing Street. This is not a universal view by any stretch of the imagination. So what happens if Labour falls…

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Great Britain as a multi-party state

Great Britain as a multi-party state

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  If the opinion polls hold up then at the next election we’ll have four parties polling at least 10% of the vote for the first time in almost a century (the last and only time it previously occurred was in 1918, with the two Liberal factions alongside the Conservatives and Labour all achieving double figures, with 1922 being the only other election to come close). So what would this new state of affairs look like? In deference to Harry…

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