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Category: General Election

The numbers of Lib Dem lost deposits at GE2015 could be in the hundreds

The numbers of Lib Dem lost deposits at GE2015 could be in the hundreds

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One feature of the recent bout of local by-elections as well as last week’s Welsh Assembly contest in Ynys Mons has been the huge collapse in the Lib Dem vote. At the Merton LBC by-election yesterday at Colliers Wood the party’s vote share slumped by 15.1% to just 2.2%. At Skelton in Redcar and Cleveland the drop was 11.3% to just 2.5%. What we are seeing is the product of the party’s GE2015 defence strategy of only focusing on those…

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My pick of the best GE2015 single constituency bets

My pick of the best GE2015 single constituency bets

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All my choices are longer than evens GE2015 betting Bradford W Galloway is going to be tougher to beat than his 3/1 price suggests. Value bet pic.twitter.com/1WzICjg5Fs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 8, 2013 One of my best bets in 2012 was the 33/1 I got on George Galloway in the Bradford West by-election. My view then remains – Galloway is a formidable politician and he’s going to be a tough one to beat. 3/1 looks a good price. Link to…

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For CON to have any chance the LAB share needs to erode. It’s looking pretty solid.

For CON to have any chance the LAB share needs to erode. It’s looking pretty solid.

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Remember Bob Worcester’s advice – look at the shares not the lead The veteran pollster who founded the MORI company all those years ago, Bob Worcester, used to contact me in the early days of PB to give me a gentle admonishment whenever he thought I focused too much on polling leads. The important thing, he would always say, was to look at the respective party poll shares. This is what I am doing today with two charts showing the…

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Populus back to “normal” following Friday’s shock LAB 11pc lead

Populus back to “normal” following Friday’s shock LAB 11pc lead

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When I questioned Populus boss, Rick Nye, about his Friday poll he said we’d need to wait until Monday see if it was an outlier or not. Well today’s poll is just out and we’ve got our answer. The numbers are very much back in line with all the other Populus online polls since the series was started last month. As Nate Silver has observed the test of an honest pollster is whether they get the occasional outlier which should…

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What we need is some Lynton Crosby betting

What we need is some Lynton Crosby betting

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Lynton Crosby said to be planning covert war against UKIP http://t.co/x5bXb2Z0Zq pic.twitter.com/2K8msVB726 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 5, 2013 Is he going to survive all the way to GE2015? For me the most interesting political story of the weekend was the Sunday Times piece, linked to in the Tweet above, about his planned covert operation to undermine UKIP. The idea is to launch what the report describes as “a “below-the-radar” operation to undermine UKIP politicians by catching them making embarrassing comments”….

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While Labour continues to have problems with leader ratings Dave should be worried about how his party is perceived

While Labour continues to have problems with leader ratings Dave should be worried about how his party is perceived

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The above netted off figures are based on these more detailed numbers. There were, as it turned out only two polls overnight, and the findings that I am highlighting are the party and leader favourability figures from Survation for the Mail on Sunday. These show, I’d suggest, the biggest challenges facing both the blue and red teams just 21 months before GE2015. Labour’s weak link is its leader while the big drag on Cameron is the Conservative party itself. These…

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PB’s Nick Palmer wins the Broxtowe nomination so he can fight to regain the seat lost at GE2010

PB’s Nick Palmer wins the Broxtowe nomination so he can fight to regain the seat lost at GE2010

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Labour's new candidate in Broxtowe rallies the troops @broxtowelabour @NickPalmerMP pic.twitter.com/0PnF5r4Dq5 — Andy Furlong (@FurlongA) August 3, 2013 It was back in 2004, only a few months after PB was launched, that Labour’s Nick Palmer (he’s the man in the suit in the pic) became the first sitting MP to post on the site under his own name. He’s been posting ever since and has been a regular at PB events. At the last election I know that a number…

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How do the Tories balance their electoral coalition?

How do the Tories balance their electoral coalition?

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Is the immigration debate symptomatic of a larger problem? The furore that has blown up among those who’ve noticed the two news stories connected to immigration this week is a good example of the problems the Conservatives face in winning an outright majority at the next election. On one level, the challenge is not too difficult, despite the boundary review not being completed.  If the economy continues to recover, with either living standards improving or at least the prospect of…

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