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Category: General Election

Betting on how many deposits the Lib Dems will lose in 2015

Betting on how many deposits the Lib Dems will lose in 2015

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New PB thread looking at betting on Lib Dem deposit losses at the 2015 GE. http://t.co/FR0XvQI0M3 pic.twitter.com/EEpQPAakBj — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) August 23, 2013   A couple of weeks ago, Mike wrote about the potential number of Lib Dem lost deposits in 2015 and how the total of lost LD deposits which, if local trends continue, could run into the hundreds. Now in 2010, the Liberal Democrats didn’t lose any deposits, whilst the the Conservatives lost just two deposits and Labour lost five…

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History suggests the Tories will see their share of the vote decline in 2015

History suggests the Tories will see their share of the vote decline in 2015

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In recent weeks there’s been a positivity about the Tories’ chances of winning outright in 2015, Michael Gove was reported to be convinced of that, and over at Betfair, the implied probability of a Tory majority has been increasing in recent weeks (though there has been an easing back from the recent high point) But looking at the table below, which shows the the change of the share of the vote at the election between the governing party and the…

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Take the 8-1 William Hill hung parliament but no coalition bet

Take the 8-1 William Hill hung parliament but no coalition bet

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Latest William Hill http://t.co/MbilRLa6MQ prices on the next government CON maj 3/1: CON:LD coalition 7/1 See all pic.twitter.com/z8xPUrcFsl — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 21, 2013 At 8/1 the current best value GE2015 bet is the “other” option in the William Hill list above. That there’ll be no overall majority but there’ll be no coalition formed. Over the last few days we’ve seen the reports of leading CON backbenchers demanding a formal role in agreeing the next coalition if the outcome on seats…

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ICM leader ratings in the Mirror make miserable reading for Miliband

ICM leader ratings in the Mirror make miserable reading for Miliband

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New ICM poll for Mirror ratchets up the pressure on EdM http://t.co/zzfiy4giAn Fewer than half LAB voters satisfied pic.twitter.com/vcwlNe8uEc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 20, 2013 Is his survival till GE2015 looking less likely? There some new polling from ICM for the LAB friendly Mirror, linked to in the Tweet above, that’s certain to add to party’s jitters even though the voting intention trend continues to be for Labour. Overall just 21% of those polled said they were satisfied with his…

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Graham Brady is wrong: Dave never had the option of a minority government in May 2010

Graham Brady is wrong: Dave never had the option of a minority government in May 2010

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The 1922 Committee chair, Graham Grady was on the World at One this lunchtime repeating one of the great myths about the formation of the coalition in May 2010. He said that he’d have preferred a minority CON government – but it is hard to see where there was a point when that was going to be possible. I’ve made this point before but Gord had all the cards in his hand on May 7th 2010. The Tories had failed…

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The fixed term parliament has taken a lot of interest out of the betting

The fixed term parliament has taken a lot of interest out of the betting

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Latest overall majority Betfair betting based on last trades. Price on CON maj now easing back pic.twitter.com/A8QezAwg4F — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 18, 2013 No overall majority remains the favourite Compared with the run up to previous general elections betting on GE2015 has been relatively light for one big reason – we know when the election will be taking place and punters are, rightly, less keen to lock their stakes up for more than eighteen months in advance. Just compare…

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Tories remain on 28pc with ComRes online while LAB extends lead

Tories remain on 28pc with ComRes online while LAB extends lead

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Another poll that doesn’t fit the media narrative EdM has his worst ever good LAB leader ratings from ComRes but his net only 1% down on Cameron pic.twitter.com/tWIwcvnzoz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 17, 2013 Dave is on a net minus 27% in ComRes good PM ratings – equalling his worst ever and only 1% better than EdM pic.twitter.com/DGsKVDFZiZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 17, 2013 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

It is 6-1 for CON to re-take Corby: By far the best bet for those who think the blues are in with a shout

It is 6-1 for CON to re-take Corby: By far the best bet for those who think the blues are in with a shout

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PaddyPower is offering 6/1 on the Tories retaking Corby – Louise Mensch’s old seat which was won by Labour in last November’s by-election. Given that the best you can now get on a CON majority is 3/1 then the Corby price is remarkably generous if you think that the Tories are in with a chance of, at the very minimum, of stopping Labour from getting most seats. Based on the GE2010 outcome Corby was LAB target number 27 and it…

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