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Category: General Election

The LDs might have left Glasgow in upbeat mood but their GE2015 prospects are dependent on UKIP continuing to prosper

The LDs might have left Glasgow in upbeat mood but their GE2015 prospects are dependent on UKIP continuing to prosper

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The big question mark over the Ashcroft polling Most delegates at this week’s Liberal Democrat conference left Glasgow in a confident mood helped by the polling of marginal constituencies funded by ex-Tory treasurer Lord Ashcroft and published on Sunday. This gave the party the glimmer of hope. For in spite of their ongoing poor national polling and their leader’s dreadful ratings it appeared that they weren’t going to be annihilated on May 7th 2015 as many have predicted. What was…

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As Labour prepares for its conference today’s YouGov reports that the party’s lead has been wiped out

As Labour prepares for its conference today’s YouGov reports that the party’s lead has been wiped out

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For the second time in two months a major pollster reports that LAB and CON are level-pegging on 36% pic.twitter.com/e0p2mzUYcj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2013 Some numbers to dampen LAB spirits Whenever you get a poll that is out of the ordinary you have to treat the findings with some scepticism and today’s YouGov poll for the Sun is no exception. In July ICM also had both LAB and CON on 36% a that wasn’t supported by other…

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UKIP 2015 could be like Cleggasm 2010 – putting on votes where it doesn’t matter

UKIP 2015 could be like Cleggasm 2010 – putting on votes where it doesn’t matter

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If this is right it is good news for the blues The above chart seeks to graphically represent data in Denis Kavanagh’s and Philip Cowley’s The British General Election of 2010 showing the mean vote changes of the main parties in different categories of seats based on which came first and second in 2005. In doing it gives an interesting picture of what happened with, perhaps, some pointers to next time. The Labour vote showed the largest range with, interestingly,…

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How to get an effective 2-1 that CON will win most seats

How to get an effective 2-1 that CON will win most seats

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Intriguing new GE2015 market from PaddyPower – will the winner be the loser? See pic.twitter.com/gPiVriyCfW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2013 CON cannot secure most seats if it doesn’t win on votes We all know that the national vote thresholds for winning most seats and and overall majority are lower for LAB than CON. Part of the reason is unequal sized constituencies though a much bigger factor is that LAB voters are much more reluctant to turnout where the…

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Corporeal on the LSE polling seminar

Corporeal on the LSE polling seminar

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A couple of days ago I was lucky enough (genuinely) to attend (sneak into the back of) a polling seminar hosted at the LSE featuring professional pollsters, academics, and a few assorted others like Mike (also complimentary wine). To be specific it was hosted somewhere in the depths of an especially labyrinthine and oddly signposted LSE building that left attendees wandering the corridors in search of rescue. LSE is one of the universities that is attempting to engage with the…

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The Lib Dems are in no mood to change their leader

The Lib Dems are in no mood to change their leader

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Nick Clegg appealing to delegates at LD conference to back him on economy pic.twitter.com/ILLwDLrkgE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 16, 2013 Clegg looks safe until GE2015 If there was going to be a threat to Nick Clegg’s leadership at the annual conference in Glasgow it was going to come in this morning’s debate on economic strategy. There was a very strong move to oppose official policy but in the end the votes went with the leadership. It was an easy…

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