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Category: General Election

Lib Dem incumbency would be overwhelmed on current polling

Lib Dem incumbency would be overwhelmed on current polling

Their current national figures would see losses on the same scale as the local elections Cockroach-like.  That was Tim Farron’s description of Lib Dems’ resilience in withstanding a hostile climate.  The inference was that no matter how tough things might be across the country, where they have elected representatives, their vote would hold firm enough. He had a point: Lib Dem MPs and councillors have in the past proven notoriously difficult to shift due to local campaigning, popularity and hard…

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Guest Slot: Rod Crosby: The bell tolls for Labour and Miliband

Guest Slot: Rod Crosby: The bell tolls for Labour and Miliband

Last week Labour beat the Tories in the local elections by just 1%, according to the Rallings and Thrasher NEV (national equivalent voteshare) calculation. This is the last set of locals before the general election. Is there anything we can divine from this performance? Yes, it looks like Labour will be soundly defeated next year. The following graph tells the tale (general elections bordered in white). We see that, going back to 1979, no party with such a minuscule lead…

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Lord Ashcroft poll on how Euro voters will vote next year

Lord Ashcroft poll on how Euro voters will vote next year

In another poll by Lord Ashcroft, 4,286 people who voted in the European Parliament elections in Great Britain were interviewed online on 22 and 23 May 2014, and there were quite a few questions asked (sadly no exit poll!) As I’ve stated before, one of the great unknowns when it comes to the next General Election is how 2014 UKIP voters will vote. Fortunately for us, Lord Ashcroft asked a question along those lines As you may know, the next…

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The Ashcroft marginals poll is out – and it’s great for Ed.

The Ashcroft marginals poll is out – and it’s great for Ed.

Lord Ashcroft’s has published his marginal polling. The poll contradicts the findings of the ComRes marginals published earlier on this week, and the sample size here is nearly 26 times larger than the ComRes poll. This polling finds a 6.5% swing from the Conservatives to Labour – enough to topple 83 Tory MPs and give Ed Miliband a comfortable majority. 26,025 people were contacted by phone between 31st of March and the 18th of May. Given the collapsing leads and occasional…

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Checking the Political Weather in Wales

Checking the Political Weather in Wales

Results of the May Welsh Political Barometer In 2009 the Conservatives were the big success story of the European elections in Wales, topping the poll in a Welsh national election for the first time in over a century (I haven’t been able to track down an earlier occurrence, Labour has topped every poll since 1918 when the Coalition Liberals stormed to victory under David Lloyd George). This was mainly down to Labour’s nosedive (down 12.2 points since 2004) rather than…

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If the trend in the ComRes marginals’ survey is seen in Lord Ashcroft’s weekend mega-poll then LAB is in very serious trouble

If the trend in the ComRes marginals’ survey is seen in Lord Ashcroft’s weekend mega-poll then LAB is in very serious trouble

Comres marginals General Election poll LAB 35% CON 33% UKIP 17% LDEM 8% My own Labour/Tory battleground seat poll released Sat @ConHome — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) May 20, 2014 CON doing far better in the marginals than GB as a whole The main reason why we have marginals polling at all is to find out whether what is happening in the key seats is different from the country as a whole. At a general election voters in these constituencies have a…

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Labour drops to its lowest level with YouGov since the summer of 2010

Labour drops to its lowest level with YouGov since the summer of 2010

Next poll up this week is Ipsos-MORI political monitor. Will it continue Labour's terrible polling week? pic.twitter.com/X3HcpFpNnQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 14, 2014 The red team’s terrible polling week continues When on Monday monrning the latest Populus poll came out showing LAB on 36% just a point ahead of the Tories it didn’t attract much attention. Since its big party ID weightings change in February the firm has been showing some of the worst LAB position and this just…

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The ten seats most likely to be affected by immigration

The ten seats most likely to be affected by immigration

Which ones would you put on the list? Tomorrow I’m taking part in an event at the House of Commons on the electoral impact of immigration at the next general election. My intention is to highlight the very big gap between responses to polling questions on what are the big issues facing the country and what issues impact most on you and your family. Thus the last time that YouGov asked this 52% included it in their top three responses…

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