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In 2010 only 47% of voters had decided the way they were going to vote before the election campaign began

In 2010 only 47% of voters had decided the way they were going to vote before the election campaign began

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If the 2015 general election is like the 2010 election, then over half the voters still won’t have made up their minds until after the campaign starts next year. Whilst most of us have been poring over the polls in recent days, I noticed this analysis by YouGov asking voters back in 2010 when they had made up their minds which way they were going to vote. I was surprised that over half the voters still hadn’t made up their…

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CON hopes are based on the LDs flourishing in LAB-CON marginals but not in CON-LD ones. The opposite is the case.

CON hopes are based on the LDs flourishing in LAB-CON marginals but not in CON-LD ones. The opposite is the case.

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GE2015 will see the return of big time tactical voting Because so much has been going on politically in the past few days very little attention has been paid to the latest round of marginals polling that was published by Lord Ashcroft last Sunday afternoon. The focus was on Lib Dem seats and the chart above is based on Lord A”s aggregate data from 17 separate polls. We’ve talked so often before about the collapse of the Lib Dem vote…

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Lord Ashcroft tells the Tories that first time incumbency bonus is not a right – its something that has to be earned

Lord Ashcroft tells the Tories that first time incumbency bonus is not a right – its something that has to be earned

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Why things might be very different on May 7th next year One of the great hopes that the Tories have clung onto as their polling deficits continue is what’s known as “first time incumbency bonus” – the extra benefit that those MPs defending their seats for the first time have experienced in the past. The chart above shows the average increases in CON votes shares last time based on different categories of seat. As can be seen new candidates seeking…

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Lord Ashcroft poll is out – Labour is on course for a majority

Lord Ashcroft poll is out – Labour is on course for a majority

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There’s a 6 point swing from Con to Lab in this polling – This would put Ed Miliband into Downing Street with a majority of 62, assuming UNS.   The @LordAshcroft polling pic.twitter.com/KcMyqbTeEO — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) September 28, 2014 It also makes for unpleasant reading for the Lib Dems, as Lord Ashcroft notes, A lesson from the blue-yellow marginals. Incumbency is not enough, it appears that the Yellows are on course to lose seats to both the Tories and…

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As we await the Lord Ashcroft polling this afternoon

As we await the Lord Ashcroft polling this afternoon

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Here’s a preview of what to expect (Note these are my selected highlights) Just over a quarter of those who voted Conservative in 2010 said they would vote for a different party in an election tomorrow. Nearly three-quarters of these now support Ukip, with most of the remainder going to Labour. Most of those who have switched from the Tories say they will still consider voting for the party next May. About 1 in 8 of those who did not…

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It’s like back to the 90s for the Tories on what is turning out to be Cameron’s Black Saturday

It’s like back to the 90s for the Tories on what is turning out to be Cameron’s Black Saturday

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Today reminds me of the 1990s and the end of John Major’s administration. First up was Mark Reckless’ defection to UKIP and in the last hour or so, Brooks Newmark, the Conservative minister for civil society, resigns after being caught sending explicit photographs of himself to women over the internet.  For those who were optimistic that the Tories would remain in power post May 2015, today probably extinguished those hopes. I still think there’s one defection to come, timed for maximum…

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David Herdson on whether Miliband can breeze to victory on the strength of not being Tory

David Herdson on whether Miliband can breeze to victory on the strength of not being Tory

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Is Labour keeping its powder dry or was that all there is? Like many a football team 2-1 up in a cup tie with ten minutes to go, a cautious defensiveness seems to have settled over the Labour Party, judging by their conference just gone.  The contrast with last year’s headline-grabbing energy price freeze policy was stark.  The big announcements were to increase the minimum wage by about 4p a year more than the average RPI rate for the current…

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Do as I have done and re-invest some of your IndyRef winnings on Mayor Dorothy in Watford

Do as I have done and re-invest some of your IndyRef winnings on Mayor Dorothy in Watford

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PaddyPower’s 5/2 is a great bet One election result from Friday that barely got reported was the selection by the Watford Lib Dems of Mayor Dorothy Thornhill as candidate for the general election. This is something that I had been anticipating and over the months and have built up what is my biggest GE2015 betting position on her with a best price of 11/2. Dorothy Thornhill is a remarkable figure in the town who on the disastrous May 2014 elections…

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