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Category: EU Referendum

Boris the favourite as betting opens on who’ll lead the EU LEAVE campaign

Boris the favourite as betting opens on who’ll lead the EU LEAVE campaign

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Ladbrokes betting on who will lead the LEAVE campaign pic.twitter.com/3eTZQK2Yc8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 2, 2015 Boris trails Nigel and Theresa in the polling As the referendum gets closer a key decision which could have huge impact on British politics in all sorts of ways is is who will lead the OUT campaign. Survation carried out some polling for LEAVE.EU and found:- Theresa May 22% Nigel Farage 18% Boris Johnson 14% These findings are somewhat surprising. I’d have expected…

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Nick Palmer: An EU referendum REMAIN victory is a 75% chance

Nick Palmer: An EU referendum REMAIN victory is a 75% chance

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The factions that’ll make up the EU referendum battle In my last article, I argued that voters weren’t yet paying attention to the EU debate, but that I thought IN would win in the end. This article explains why. One of the charms of The Game of Thrones is the sheer variety of interacting factions, feuding, allying, and eyeing each other in guarded and temporary neutrality. The EU referendum is going to be just like that. It’s possible to identify…

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The Blue and the Purple – the threat of a Tory civil war over the EU

The Blue and the Purple – the threat of a Tory civil war over the EU

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Antifrank on the potential for a big divide David Cameron is a popular leader of the Conservative party.  He has consistently outpolled it, tugging it along in his wake.  His brisk, warm, unideological Conservativism (which is closer to the Christian Democracy found on the continent than to the Thatcherism that has prevailed in the Conservative party for the last 30 years in Britain) appeals to many. Many, but not all.  His leftwing opponents outside his party are predictable.  Less predictably,…

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Nick Palmer on why we shouldn’t pay too much attention to EU referendum polls

Nick Palmer on why we shouldn’t pay too much attention to EU referendum polls

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Voters aren’t pay much attention at the moment Membership of the EU is so central to many aspects of our political debate that almost everyone in politics has a strong view about it. We project that onto the electorate at large, and then puzzle over the small number of people who actually mention it as an issue that they worry about. Is it because the question is badly put, or because they’re concealing their strong feelings? No. Look at the…

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Ipsos MORI referendum REMAIN lead drops by an astonishing 24 points

Ipsos MORI referendum REMAIN lead drops by an astonishing 24 points

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New Ipsos-MORI phone poll finds REMAIN on 57% to LEAVE 43% on EU referendum. In June the firm had 69-31 for staying. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2015 Ipsos MORI 14% remain EU referendum lead means once again phone polls more likely to be pro-EU than online. Latest YouGov REMAIN was 1% up — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 22, 2015 By a margin of more than 2 to 1 those sampled by @IpsosMORI say they think REMAIN will win…

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New study by John Curtice suggests that the referendum LEAVE/REMAIN divide is about class, age and education

New study by John Curtice suggests that the referendum LEAVE/REMAIN divide is about class, age and education

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The picture above was taken at last month’s UKIP conference where there was a great effort to aim at the young. Whether dressing the youngsters up in these t-shirts will have an impact I don’t know but the LEAVE camp is very much aware of where it’s weakness is. A new study just out by John Curtice, him of exit poll fame, points to the very big demographic divides between those saying they want to leave the EU and those…

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David Cameron’s popularity – the reason why we are having an EU referendum and the reason why LEAVE is likely to lose

David Cameron’s popularity – the reason why we are having an EU referendum and the reason why LEAVE is likely to lose

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The reason, of course, why we are having an EU referendum is that the Conservatives had such a stunning and surprise victory in the general election. One of the key factors in that, I would argue, is the personality and popularity of David Cameron himself. Without the “Cameron premium” then it’s likely that the Tories would not be in power and able to decide. Just look at the polling above which was taken just before the general election. This is…

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In the past 6 weeks EU referendum polls have ranged from a 3% LEAVE lead to a 19% REMAIN one

In the past 6 weeks EU referendum polls have ranged from a 3% LEAVE lead to a 19% REMAIN one

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Looking at the numbers on the day the REMAIN campaign launches The chart above is based on the difference between the REMAIN and LEAVE figures, before netting off the don’t knows, in all the EU referendum polls since the beginning of September. What is absolutely extraordinary is the sheer range of findings. These run from a LEAVE lead of 3% to a REMAIN one of 19%. Why this should be is very difficult to understand. It might just reflect that…

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