In the past 6 weeks EU referendum polls have ranged from a 3% LEAVE lead to a 19% REMAIN one
Looking at the numbers on the day the REMAIN campaign launches
The chart above is based on the difference between the REMAIN and LEAVE figures, before netting off the don’t knows, in all the EU referendum polls since the beginning of September.
What is absolutely extraordinary is the sheer range of findings. These run from a LEAVE lead of 3% to a REMAIN one of 19%. Why this should be is very difficult to understand. It might just reflect that opinion on the issue is still very much in a state of flux or it could indicate a methodological split.
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The ComRes numbers are in line with its earlier polling. At the end of May to a different form of question ComRes had a REMAIN lead of 17% while one by the pollster just before the general election had the margin at 22%.
ComRes polling for the Mail is carried out by phone. All the others since the question format was agreed, including the ICM ones, are online.
What I would really like to see is some more telephone polling on the subject from other pollsters because we seem to be seeing a methodology divide? The only other firms now doing phone polling on a regular basis are ICM and Ipsos MORI.
The only conclusion you can come too from all of this is that it is very difficult to make any predictions at the moment. The outcome could be either way.