New study by John Curtice suggests that the referendum LEAVE/REMAIN divide is about class, age and education

New study by John Curtice suggests that the referendum LEAVE/REMAIN divide is about class, age and education

UKIP youth

The picture above was taken at last month’s UKIP conference where there was a great effort to aim at the young. Whether dressing the youngsters up in these t-shirts will have an impact I don’t know but the LEAVE camp is very much aware of where it’s weakness is.

A new study just out by John Curtice, him of exit poll fame, points to the very big demographic divides between those saying they want to leave the EU and those saying they want to remain.

In general the younger and more middle class you are the greater the chance that you’ll be in the remain camp. Another big divider is education with graduates far more likely to want to stay in the EU.

Curtice highlights one study showing just 15% of graduates in the NO camp. Two thirds of those under 35 want to remain in the EU, compared with just 45% of those of 55+.

Unlike last year’s Scottish referendum there is no female bias towards the status quo. The gender split on the referendum issue is broadly equal

The leave campaign will take heart from the age profile profile divide because of course, the older you are the more likely it is that you will vote in an election.

Meanwhile this week’s ICM referendum tracker has REMAIN 44%(-1), LEAVE 38%(+2). Encouragement for for OUT but still within standard margins of error

Mike Smithson



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