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Category: EU matters

The consequences of what has already happened and the consequences of what is yet to come

The consequences of what has already happened and the consequences of what is yet to come

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Embed from Getty Images   Britain is Brexiting, Trump is triumphant in the USA, France is flirting with the Front National and in countries as diverse as Sweden, Austria and the Netherlands, the far right is doing more than alright.  Yes, yes, but what does it mean? Much energy has been expended analysing why populism and the alt right are doing so well right now.  Rather less has been spent on considering the practical implications not just for individual countries…

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Saved by der Bellen but what will the Italian referendum bring for the EU?

Saved by der Bellen but what will the Italian referendum bring for the EU?

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Saved by der Bellen? Hofer concedes in the Austrian Presidential election. But what does it mean for the EU?https://t.co/RHFJO7cIcW — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 4, 2016 Another polling failure? A bit harsh when polls are banned for the final fortnight Austria: … and the polls failed again. #bpw16 #polls #Umfragen #vanderBellen pic.twitter.com/CednTGNVNl — Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) December 4, 2016 Latest Italian referendum betting   TSE

What if Trump does prefer Putin over Juncker?

What if Trump does prefer Putin over Juncker?

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And where would that leave the Brexit process? A weary-sounding Jean-Claude Juncker told students in his home state of Luxembourg last week that “we will need to teach the president-elect [i.e. Donald Trump] what Europe is and how it works”. In doing so, he erred badly, not for the first time. You can hear the derision dripping from the words, as, no doubt can the chief occupant of Trump Tower; not someone known for brushing off condescension. If Juncker is…

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The Brexiteers, Juncker’s fifth columnists?

The Brexiteers, Juncker’s fifth columnists?

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How the Leavers may have ultimately signed the United Kingdom up for the single currency, the Schengen agreement, an EU Army, and a United States of Europe. Despite all the hype and bluster, the court case, and Parliamentary scrutiny, the United Kingdom will be leaving the European Union within the next few few years, and both will rapidly change because of Brexit. Without the United Kingdom inside the EU stopping and vetoing more federalist ideas nor without our influence advocating…

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Why I’m betting that it’ll be next July at the earliest before Article 50 is invoked

Why I’m betting that it’ll be next July at the earliest before Article 50 is invoked

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Theresa May: Article 50 will not be brought forward https://t.co/SeSAC0MigX pic.twitter.com/bVzngcgpww — ITV News (@itvnews) July 15, 2016 Several bookies, including Betfair, have got markets up on when, if ever, Article 50 will be invoked. This is, of course, the formal process that would see the exit of the UK from the EU. There’ve been two articles this afternoon that cause me to suggest that this will be later rather than sooner. Ian Dunt has an excellent explanation here while…

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The betting on when will Article 50 be triggered, if ever?

The betting on when will Article 50 be triggered, if ever?

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Pictures: First picture odds from Stan James, second picture, odds from SkyBet There’s a couple of markets up on when Article 50 will be triggered, if you’re lucky to have a Stan James account, I wonder backing the any other outcome other option. It is effectively a bet on Article 50 being triggered in 2018 or later, not at all. Now 2018 might sound far away, but we’re less than 18 months away from 2018, and given the gravity of…

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Those who say that the bookies got EURef wrong don’t understand betting

Those who say that the bookies got EURef wrong don’t understand betting

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Ladbrokes betting barometer 2239BST June 23rd Punters aim to make money not to provide an alternative opinion indicator As well as the cries that the polls got EURef wrong there’s been something of a backlash against the betting industry which more than at any previous election had sought to promote itself in the manner that Ladbrokes did in the graphic above. They are being attacked for “getting it wrong” – something you’d never hear after, say, the Grand National when,…

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Richard Tyndall on the exit strategy

Richard Tyndall on the exit strategy

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Embed from Getty Images   Recent interventions into the Muslim world by Western powers post 9/11 have been characterised by one great failing. Whilst they have carefully planned and executed the military phase of the campaign, they have utterly failed to deal with the post conflict stage leaving behind failed states in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya as a result. The Brexit campaign is in danger of doing the same thing if they do not sort out, very quickly, what their…

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