Browsed by
Category: EU matters

The long tail. Looking at the rise of populism

The long tail. Looking at the rise of populism

Comments 0 Comment

Here's the polling for the primary populist right party in 15 western European countries from 2005 to June 2018 (part of upcoming paper by @AndrewPGeddes and me). Draw your own conclusions ? pic.twitter.com/1eqS9bF2wr — James Dennison (@JamesRDennison) July 19, 2018 I am one of the 42% @YouGov https://t.co/2Z42Y06TFv pic.twitter.com/9zPH35Skgr — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) July 23, 2018 A spectre is haunting Europe: the spectre of populism. All the powers of old Europe has entered into a holy alliance to exorcise this…

Read More Read More

Right turn ahead. The Hungarian general election

Right turn ahead. The Hungarian general election

Comments 0 Comment

Hungary is the holding pen of Europe. Sat on the Great Hungarian Plain, which is effectively the most westward of the steppes, it is no coincidence that successive invasions over many eras have come through Hungary and stopped at Vienna, from the Mongols to the Turks to the waves of migrants in 2015 – it is the line of least resistance. The last hundred years have not been good for Hungary. It lost two thirds of its territory at the…

Read More Read More

How the EU hierarchy is losing supportive governments

How the EU hierarchy is losing supportive governments

Comments 0 Comment

One of the less attractive aspects of British Euroscepticism (a keenly-contested category) is the willingness of many supporters to see the imminent collapse of the EU with every electoral development around the continent. Last year, Eurosceptics were salivating at the prospect of Geert Wilders’ party topping the poll in the Dutch election. Thwarted on that front, nearly nine out of ten Leave cats who expressed a preference decided that Marine Le Pen’s election as French president would be best for…

Read More Read More

Rebeller Italia. The next problem coming down the tracks for the EU

Rebeller Italia. The next problem coming down the tracks for the EU

Comments 0 Comment

The EU is already wrestling with Brexit and with a renaissance of illiberalism in Poland and Hungary challenging its long-held views of European values.  What it really doesn’t want is a third front.  Italy seems set to disoblige. Ever since Silvio Berlusconi was ousted at the end of 2011, Italy has been run on a reform platform, first by a technocratic government headed by former European Commissioner Mario Monti, and then for the last five years by the parties of…

Read More Read More

Picking up the pieces. Disintegrating Europe

Picking up the pieces. Disintegrating Europe

Comments 0 Comment

EU: Support for Independence, Katapult poll of polls: Veneto: 56%Catalonia: 44%Sardinia: 41%Scotland: 40%Basque: 31%#Catalonia — Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) October 5, 2017 For 160 million years, overlapping substantially with the age of the dinosaurs, the entire landmass of the world was gathered together into a supercontinent called Pangaea.  And for much of the last 30 years, many devotees of the EU have imagined a single supercontinental system of government, as first western Europe and then much of eastern Europe has gloopily…

Read More Read More

If the PVV do it tonight in the Dutch election it will be another polling miss where the right was understated

If the PVV do it tonight in the Dutch election it will be another polling miss where the right was understated

Comments 0 Comment

Wikipedia British punters stayed with the PVV until yesterday Betdata.io The big political betting event today is the Dutch General Election where the betting prices have been out of line with the polling. British punters appear to have been taking a view that the PVV will do better than the surveys suggest. At one stage Betfair had the PVV at a 71% chance – at 1pm that was down to 34% I took Alistair Meeks’ post yesterday seriously and have…

Read More Read More

Your guide to betting on tomorrow’s Dutch election

Your guide to betting on tomorrow’s Dutch election

Comments 0 Comment

Embed from Getty Images The first of the big 3 elections in EU countries this year After the last Ice Age, Britain and the Netherlands were joined by land. The Thames and the Rhine were part of a single river system.  Following an inundation caused by a megatsunami, the two were separated, ironically, under a torrent of water. In 2016, European politics was hit by the megatsunami of Brexit, separating Britain from the rest of Europe.  Are there previously joined…

Read More Read More