— ITV News (@itvnews) July 15, 2016
Several bookies, including Betfair, have got markets up on when, if ever, Article 50 will be invoked. This is, of course, the formal process that would see the exit of the UK from the EU.
There’ve been two articles this afternoon that cause me to suggest that this will be later rather than sooner. Ian Dunt has an excellent explanation here while the ITV news piece in the Tweet above features the PM’s views.
She makes it very clear that there will be no invocation until there is UK-wide agreement and that, importantly, includes Scotland.
Even if that happens it is hard to see this being finalised before the end of June next year which is the mid time segment on the Betfair market. I’ve gone for from July 1st 2017 if at all.
The Dunt article, linked to above suggests that things could drag on until the next general election.
One of the smart features of the May’s cabinet choices is that it is prominent leavers who are handling this. My view is that this will make it easier to assuage the outers if things go on longer than expected. David Davis was talking about a much earlier exit before he got appointed but squaring the Nicola Sturgeon problem is going to be very tricky.
So is there a version of Brexit that David Davis, Fox and Boris can negotiate from 27 EU nations, that Sturgeon & Scotland will accept?
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) July 15, 2016