The Republic of Ireland will hold a referendum to accept the European fiscal compact treaty tomorrow with the problems in Greece and Spain in the background. The polls are showing the yes side will win, but there are significant don’t knows in the polling. A recent Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll put the support for the treaty at 39%, with 30% against the treaty, some 22% are unsure of how to vote and 9% intending not to vote. In March it…
IG have put up a couple of markets in the past week regarding Greece. The bets can be located in their binary betting market section. TSE Note: Mike Smithson is on holiday until June 7th.
Tonight is that great annual event, The Eurovision song contest. It will be interesting to see if the issues in the Eurozone affects voting tonight. I’m not expecting the Germans to give the Greeks zwölf punkte or the Greeks to give the Germans δώδεκα σημεία, but will the rest of Europe give the Greeks a sympathy vote? There have been rumours that some countries don’t want their contestants winning as they don’t want the costs of hosting the event next year…
The Times are reporting that Tory MPs say Greek exit will force referendum What gives this story a lot of credence is that Nadeem Zahawi, who is close (and loyal) to George Osborne, said on the record: “If there is a requirement for a new treaty, which there must be, to deal in part with Greece’s exit, then it would trigger a referendum. We would have to make sure we would try and repatriate powers from the social chapter and bring…
In the Spectator today, Nigel Farage raises the possibility of joint Conservative/UKIP candidates at the next election. He says “What I do know is there are Conservative associations up and down the country who think this could be a way forward. “All I would say to you is that in terms of co-operation or deals or anything in the future, firstly it’s some way off. But secondly, I can see that there are associations thinking along these lines. If…
David Herdson on Saturday The current and next phases of the Eurocrisis is all about who will prevail when the irresistible force of the Greek electorate meets the immovable object of Angela Merkal and the Greek debt-holders. Without funds from the international institutions, Greece will default. Those funds will not be forthcoming if Greece doesn’t implement the policies that were part of the deal. Those policies won’t be enacted unless Greece has a government committed to them. Five of the…
Will the Euro still exist at the end of 2015? William Hill have reopened their market on which will be the first country to quit the Eurozone – and although Greece remain hot favourites at 1/4, Spain have been slashed from 12/1 to 7/1 third favourite. ‘We suspended the market earlier in the week when punters only wanted to back Greece but with the financial crisis escalating in Spain and the possibility of another Greek election we have decided to…
Or is it mostly current Tory voters who are concerned? The above chart is based on data from YouGov’s latest survey, taken on Tuesday this week, of the key issues when panel members are asked to tick three areas which concern them most. What’s shown above is the split amongst voters for the three main parties on a wide range of issues and the differences in priorities between the parties is quite marked. While concern about the economy is broadly…