What would happen in each of the parties? For the last hour or so I’ve been lying awake pondering what would happen if there was an unexpected vacancy in each of the three parties. Who would take over and what would be the consequences? The easiest, I think, would be with Labour. If Ed Miliband was suddenly unable to continue in the job then there would only be three realistic choices – Harriet Harman (20/1), David Miliband (5/1) or Yvette…
Is the IDS programme the next “wedge issue”? The big political news this morning is the Observer’s front page splash saying that under plans to be announced in the next few days the jobless could risk losing their benefits if they don’t do unpaid manual work. This is based on the belief that jobseekers “would benefit from experiencing the habits and routines of working life”. According to the paper the unemployed will be told to take up “mandatory work activity”…
Are any of these bets tempting? William Hills have revived a market that proved popular, and for me profitable, in the run-up to the general election – which leader will be the first to leave his job. The pricing is Cameron 9/4, Miliband 7/4, and Clegg 5/4. Interestingly Clegg was the 5/4 favourite in December 2007 when Hills last put this market up – Brown was at 9/4. Clearly with the polls as they are Clegg is the favourite though…
Should EdM be thinking of the wider audience? In his summary of today’s PMQ encounter between Cameron and Ed Miliband the Indy on Sunday’s John Rentoul concluded:- “..Good tactics on Miliband’s part; poor strategy. He succeeded in winding up Iain Duncan Smith, Work and Pensions Secretary, standing at the end opposite the Speaker’s chair, shouting, “Absolute rubbish!†He succeeded in dividing the left-wing of the Liberal Democrats from their colleagues on the Government benches. (Miliband had a good line about…
Guardian Is the coalition being judged on its existence – not its actions? As we start this critical week a Monday morning column that stands is the one by the Guardian’s Julian Glover is which he tries to answer the question of why many on the left seem to hate the Lib Dems so much. He writes: “..The big boys ran the country. The Lib Dems were supposed to yelp admonitions from the sidelines. Labour commissioned the Browne review on…
Is this the reason for the disappointing polls? Just after mid-day, when Ed Miliband gets to his feet for his first PMQs as leader of the opposition, you can bet that some commentator somewhere will observe that the new Labour leader does not have the backing of the MPs behind him. For ever since EdM was declared winner on that September Saturday in Manchester there’ve been ongoing suggestions that somehow his election was illegitimate. It was as though newspapers and…
Standard Will she pip her hubbie for shadow chancellor? With the results of Labour shadow cabinet elections due out this evening Ed Miliband is said to be phoning key figures to tell them what role they have. The big focus is, of course, on the Balls household – is the shadow chancellor going to be Mister or Missus? The rumours suggest the latter and that’s where the lively Smarkets exchange market is now moving. I’ve been betting against Ed Balls….
Will he become a leading player in the referendum campaign? Last week’s Labour leadership election was one of the most high-profile AV election that the British public’s seen. It was also one which would probably tie Ed Miliband into the Yes team for the referendum, even were he not already inclined that way. After he only took the lead on the final transfer of votes, it would undermine his own position to do anything else. The question is how energetically…