Could the announcement go down like a damp squib? The circumstantial evidence overnight seems to suggest that Obama is about to announce that Joe Biden has been selected as his running mate. Certainly that’s what punters think and as I write he’s tightened to 1/4 on Betfair. The chart above shows the implied probability of the three key players based on their latest UK betting odds. The one thing I cannot understand is why Obama has waited for so long…
Drudge reports Obama-Bayh material being produced Four years ago it was the aviation blogs that broke the story of the Kerry-Edwards ticket, when a plane was customised with their banner. Now Matt Drudge, who famously broke the story of Lewinski’s blue dress, is reporting that a firm in Kansas City is producing Obama-Bayh ‘material’. Bumper stickers with any number of whacky tickets arent rare (‘Obama-McCain ’08’ is available if you think that’s still possible…) but industrial quantity production is either…
Is the NRA-sponsored Governor of Montana still in the running? I am still of the view that there are plenty of names washing around that are done to muddy the issue of who Obama will actually choose. I’m interested in the names that were in contention, but that the campaign have sought to keep out of the limelight whilst final-stage vetting was being done. I mentioned Bill Richardson and (for the Republicans) Mike Huckabee for this reason a few weeks…
Is the VEEP teasing like last autumn’s UK election speculation? One of the main reasons why Mr Brown is in trouble now, as we all know, is that he and his team allowed the talk of an early general election last autumn to get out of hand. There was a sense that they were teasing the public, the media and the rest of the Westminster village and that when it all got called off the mood changed dramatically. Is there…
How the VP announcement might win more votes As we wait for the Obama VP announcement it’s perhaps worth looking at why his campaign has said that the name will be announced first to all those who have registered their mobile phone numbers so that they can receive a text message. For a key strategy is to collect as many such numbers as possible in order to help the campaign in the final few hours before and during voting on…
At least it will end the betting misery If ever there’s been a market that’s alerted me to the fact that I might have a problem with betting on politics it has been on Barack Obama’s choice of running mate. As I noted here in June – betting on this is a “mug’s game” because it’s the choice of just one man and we can only speculate on what his criteria will be. Normally I like to think that I’m…
What is dictating McCain’s media strategy? In the advertising war waging across the water, John McCain is positively hammering Barack Obama. The Arizona Senator has ploughed significant money into attacking his counterpart from Illinois on a number of fronts; from his advice on inflating tyres to his ‘celebrity’ status, apparently comparable to that of Paris Hilton and Britney Spears. Two elements of his campaign’s assault on Obama have raised eyebrows. Firstly, why is McCain criticising Obama on such spurious grounds…
Is this the way to minimise another humiliating defeat? Â The Guardian writer Martin Kettle is one of many commentators to say that the timing of the Glenrothes by-election would be a major factor in determining whether or not Brown lives to fight another day. Since the death of John MacDougall, the Labour majority of 10,664 has been assessed and found to be unsafe in the face of the likely challenge of the SNP. It requires a smaller swing than…