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Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

If the White House Race was decided by size of TV audience then Obama wins easily

If the White House Race was decided by size of TV audience then Obama wins easily

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But both Romney and Obama well down on 2008 ratings The TV audience figures for the final night of the Democratic convention are out and we are able to make comparisons between Romney and Obama and with how many watched four years ago when John McCain was the GOP nominee. Barack Obama’s speech on Thursday night attracted 35.7m viewers which compared with 38.4m at the 2008 convention. Mitt Romney’s speech last week had an audience on 30.3m viewers which was…

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Time to close down those Mitt Romney positions

Time to close down those Mitt Romney positions

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This is the moment when I realize that –save for the pesky 22nd Amendment — Bill Clinton right now would be running for his sixth term. — Walter Shapiro (@waltershapiroPD) September 6, 2012 Clinton’s genius is in trotting out totally focus-group-tested lines and making them sound incredibly authentic. — Nate Silver (@fivethirtyeight) September 6, 2012 Clinton mastery is not just getting crowd going, but getting him going in his direction. An interactive speech, an experience. #DNC2012 — Rick Klein (@rickklein)…

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It’s now a polling dead heat between Romney and Obama

It’s now a polling dead heat between Romney and Obama

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But Nate Silver reckons that Barack has a 76.3% chance? The latest Real Clear Politics average on the November White House race shows that the gap has got closer following last week’s GOP convention in Tampa and they are now dead level. But the leading US elections expert, Nate Silver, has now adjusted his forecast making the President a 76.3% chance to hold onto his job. Nate’s case is that previous elections the historicial evidence points to the contender who…

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Day by day how Betfair Romney punters reacted to the GOP convention

Day by day how Betfair Romney punters reacted to the GOP convention

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Historical data from Bestbetting But does Mitt have a better than 35% chance Sometimes betting price change charts can be very telling and the one above shows how the Romney White House race odds changed during the party convention in Tampa last week. The Betfair prices are shown in terms of an implied probability and as can be seen Mitt was having a great convention until the moment he stood up to speak. This all seems to be in line…

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Why are Obama’s re-election odds so short?

Why are Obama’s re-election odds so short?

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David Herdson asks “Is Obama really so assured of some swingback?” Conventions come and conventions go.  Providing they go more or less to plan, the candidate will receive a short-term bounce in the polls, some favourable coverage in the media and a reinvigorated campaign.  Such has been largely the lot of Mitt Romney this last week and such will likely be the case for Barack Obama next.  Romney has either closed the gap or taken a slight lead, depending on…

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How far ahead will Romney be in the RCP poll average on Monday?

How far ahead will Romney be in the RCP poll average on Monday?

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Ladbrokes have a market asking “How far ahead will Romney be in the RCP poll average on Monday?” At the time of writing (midnight) the odds were. Obama Ahead 2/1 Romney ahead by 0-2.9% 5/4 Romney ahead by 3%+ 2/1 To be settled on the Real Clear Politics headline poll average as displayed at midday on 3rd Sep. How will Paul Ryan’s speech be received? and how will the abuse of a black camera woman by two Republican convention guests play…

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The money starts going on Mitt Romney again

The money starts going on Mitt Romney again

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But will it turn after the Democratic convention? If I wasn’t still on holiday in France at the moment I would be able to access my Betfair account to resume trading on the November’s White House race. In spite of being in the EU the French authorities clamp down on Betfair and the betting exchange goes to great length to stop you from using your account. Fortunately the latest move back to Mitt Romney was entirely predictable because contenders almost…

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Most Americans Still Predict Obama Will Win 2012 Election

Most Americans Still Predict Obama Will Win 2012 Election

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Gallup have released some polling, one of which asks, Regardless of whom you support, and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win the election in November. Barack Obama 58% (+2%) Mitt Romney 36%  (nc) The changes are from the last time they asked the question in May. Given the closeness in the Voting Intention polling, the 22% lead is interesting, and for Mitt Romney, probably disheartening, given “Americans’ prediction of who will win is significant…

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