But Nate Silver reckons that Barack has a 76.3% chance?
The latest Real Clear Politics average on the November White House race shows that the gap has got closer following last week’s GOP convention in Tampa and they are now dead level.
But the leading US elections expert, Nate Silver, has now adjusted his forecast making the President a 76.3% chance to hold onto his job.
Nate’s case is that previous elections the historicial evidence points to the contender who has just had his convention getting a significant polling bounce. Mitt has edged up a notch or two but it’s not far enough. He notes:-
..On average, between 1968 and 2008, the challenging candidate led by 10 percentage points in polls conducted just after his convention. By comparison, the challenging candidate eventually lost the popular vote by an average of three points in these years. That means the post-convention polls overrated the challenger by an average of 13 points…
In the key swing states where there has been post GOP convention polling Mitt’s numbers have moved up – but not by very much.
The RCP Florida average has Obama ahead by just 0.6%
In Ohio the RCP average is showing the President with a 0.7% margin
Michigan, Romney’s home state, has Obama ahead by 2.4%
In the betting Betfair have 1.9/1 against Romney – it was 1.94/1 last night.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB