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Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

Take the 16-1 “Nationwide vote share winner loses the election” bet

Take the 16-1 “Nationwide vote share winner loses the election” bet

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Nate Silver makes it a 7.9% chance Thanks to TSE overnight for alerting us to this – the new Ladbrokes White House market that the contender securing the highest popular vote winner on November 6th will not win the presidency. The firm is offering 16/1. With the national polls tightening sharply since last week’s debate but with Obama, just, still having the edge in the key battleground states the chances of this happening are probably better than the odds being…

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The Mitt Romney bounce-back on the betting markets

The Mitt Romney bounce-back on the betting markets

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Our weekly national poll for @dkelections finds Mitt Romney leading for the first time all year, 49-47: dailykos.com/story/2012/10/… — PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) October 9, 2012 Could he still unseat the President? The Democratic pollster, Public Policy Polling, has produced the latest national survey that has Romney with a 2% lead. This follows a Pew survey overnight with a Romney lead twice as large. Other polls though, such as the latest Gallup daily tracking with a 5% Obama lead, are telling a…

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The White House Race Round Up

The White House Race Round Up

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Following on from the first Presidential Debate, we’ve started seeing the first post debate polling emerging and other interesting snippets which could have an impact on the outcome. On the polling, the Real Clear Politics average is now Obama 48.4% and Romney at 47%. Other polling A new poll in Colorado released Sunday indicates President Barack Obama has a narrow advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney among likely voters in the state. Despite Obama’s advantage, the poll also shows Colorado…

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Is this as good as it gets for Romney?

Is this as good as it gets for Romney?

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David Herdson asks Was his debate win a launch-pad or his last hurrah? After a gaffe-prone September, Mitt Romney desperately needed a good performance in the first of the presidential debates to be in with a chance of winning. Had Obama scored a clear victory, it’s likely that not only would the polls, which had already been moving in the president’s favour, have continued that trend but also that with the momentum so strongly running against Romney, Republican campaign funds may…

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How Betfair punters reacted to tonight’s first Presidential Debate

How Betfair punters reacted to tonight’s first Presidential Debate

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Tweet Romney up a bit but Obama still firm favourite The chart shows the changes in the Mitt Romney price, expressed as a percentage, during tonight’s debate. The event, at the University of Denver in Colorada, started at 0200 BST and finished at 0330 BST. On Intrade, the US-focused betting exchange, the Romney price moved to more than 30%. Being seen to have won the first debate in instant polls is not the same as winning the election – just…

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The First Presidential Debate Thread

The First Presidential Debate Thread

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At 2am BST, we will see the first Presidential Debate, it is scheduled to last for 90 minutes. In the UK, the following channels are showing the debate live. BBC News Sky News CNN CNBC Fox News Sky News’ & CNN’s programming begins at 1am. UK viewers will also be able to watch a live stream of the debate from The BBC News Channel here. This is the first of the debates, the format of this and subsequent debates can…

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Obama’s price eases as we get closer to the first debate

Obama’s price eases as we get closer to the first debate

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There’s a slight narrowing in the polls as well Generally speaking in US presidential elections there are three points when a challenger can make progress against an incumbent. Firstly there’s the buzz surrounding the announcement of the V-P nominee; then there is the candidate’s big speech at his convention and thirdly there’s the White House debates. The first two of those have already happened. The third of the three takes place tonight at the University of Denver. It starts at…

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It’s not a question of whether Obama will win but the size of the victory

It’s not a question of whether Obama will win but the size of the victory

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Tweet All the money goes on Barack winning by a biggish margin The big political betting story of the days has been the activity and movement on PaddyPower’s electoral colllege vote market in November’s White House election. This morning the firm was offering 5/6 that Obama would win 319.5 electoral college votes or above and 5/6 that he’d get below. Given the way the polls have been going in the battleground states this seemed like a great bet. Peter the…

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