Nate Silver makes it a 7.9% chance

Thanks to TSE overnight for alerting us to this – the new Ladbrokes White House market that the contender securing the highest popular vote winner on November 6th will not win the presidency. The firm is offering 16/1.

With the national polls tightening sharply since last week’s debate but with Obama, just, still having the edge in the key battleground states the chances of this happening are probably better than the odds being offered.

According to the New York Times election analyst, Nate Silver, there’s a 4.9% chance that this could happen with Obama winning and a 3% chance with Romney.

As the bet applies both ways then that makes a 7.9% chance overall which is somewhat better than the Ladbrokes price represents

What’s happened in this election, of course, is that tens of millions of dollars have been ploughed by both campaigns into states like Ohio where it’s been hard to watch TV for long without being bombarded by campaign advertising.

In other less critical states you would hardly notice that an election is taking place.

This election will be won or lost on turnout. Who can get their vote out on the day. The massive resources being directed to the places where it matters could create different levels compared with the overall national numbers.

Mike Smithson

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