Romney Betfair price down by 4% over six hours – new chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 17, 2012 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK Follow @MSmithsonPB
There’s a must-read article by Nate Silver We are now just 21 days away from the November 6th elections for the next President of the United States and as the Real Clear Politics chart above shows the battle is extraordinarily tight. Nationally the lead that Romney built up following the first debate on October 3rd has started to whittle away – though he’s still ahead by a whisker. But as has been said so often during this campaign it’s not…
Obama vs. Romney: National trial heats . . . twitter.com/pollreport/sta… — PollingReport.com (@pollreport) October 15, 2012 The betting moves a notch back to Barack After a week and a half when all the polling has been in one direction there are just some signs that Obama is recovering from the blows he received from his lacklustre performance in the first Presidential Debate. The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll has the President leading by 49% to 46% which compares with 49-47…
Edmund in Tokyo on the Obama fight-back One big question about the presidential election has been whether Republicans enthusiastic about defeating Obama and Democrats merely inclined to keep him, Romney will win the election by differential turnout. The Republicans often poll better among likely voters than registered voters, the combination of a weak economy and an uninspiring debate performance now puts the gap at as much as 5%. But in an election where 6 billion dollars worth of persuation is…
If the next round of key state polling has Obama behind then Mitt could be favourite With the incumbent continue to make heavy weather in the polls following his disappointing performance in the first presidential debate the election of November 6th is looking nothing like the certainty it appeared less than a fortnight ago. All the recent national polls have had Romney ahead or a tie. The only consolation for the Obama camp is that until now, at least, he…
Ohio (18 electoral college votes) Virginia (13 electoral college votes) Florida (28 electoral college votes) Iowa (6 electoral college votes) This is heading for a very tight outcome and as Nate Silver concludes – Obama’s swing state firewall is very brittle. My current betting position is that I’m on Romney but am “all in the green” at Betfair which means that I don’t lose any money whatever happens. For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and…
It might be down to Obama’s summer ad offensive So far today there’ve been five national polls on the November 6th election and Romney is leading in four of them. The picture is totally different in polling from the key battle-grounds where Romney’s debate bounce has been much smaller. Why’s this happening? What is different about the states where it matters. There’s an interesting theory by Nate Cohn in the New Republic. “. Simply put: campaigns might matter. There hasn’t…
Quite simply Obama is getting far more bangs for his bucks Latest Swing State Polls Here are the latest polls from the battleground states: Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (University of North Florida) Nevada: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (SurveyUSA) Nevada: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling) New Hampshire: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen) Ohio: Obama 45%, Romney 44% (SurveyUSA) Ohio: Obama 46%, Romney 42% (Newsmax/Zogby) Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Rasmussen) Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 42% (Philadelphia Inquirer) Wisconsin:…