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Above is the latest polling average for Florida from Nate Silver’s site where, as can be seen, Biden has been enjoying a small but significant lead. Yet when we look at the betting a different trend appears. This of the Betfair market from Betdata and Trump has been odds on favourite for quite some time. On the face of it a bet on Biden at anything longer than evens is great value – yet that doesn’t seem to be happening….

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US Election Day (which is, I suppose, a misnomer given most votes have now been cast) is just five days away. Here – in order of reporting – are the first five of the ten counties punters need to watch in order to correctly estimate the likely election result. Dixville Notch – Tuesday about 5:05am UK timeFirst in the nation to report (probably). There will be seven to ten votes cast. Last time around, Clinton got 4, Trump 2, Romney…

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The Texas Tribune report above features the latest move by multi-billionaire and former White House contender, Michael Bloomberg, to help Joe Biden take Texas (38 ECVs) and Ohio (18 ECVs). The paper notes: For the most part, both Biden and President Donald Trump have avoided general election campaigning in Texas. Trump hasn’t visited the state since the summer, while Biden’s last appearance was in March. In the last month, however, Biden has sent a flurry of surrogates to the state…

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Flicking through the Betfair WH2020 markets a few minutes ago I was taken with the longer than evens price currently available on the Democrats winning a majority in the Senate. Given the way opinion has been going in the US over the past few weeks then this objective for the party is surely within reach and they should come out of next week’s election controlling the House, the White House and the Senate. I had got to the stage of…

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Latest from the Smarkets Exchange

A value bet at the current 33% Apart from choosing the president next week there are a whole host of other contests taking place in the US and I’ve been looking at some to see if I can find interesting betting opportunities. One of the fiercest and most expensive battles is going on for the Senate seat in South Carolina where the controversial long-standing Republican, Lindsey Graham is trying to fend off a furious high budget campaign by the Democrats…

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The North Carolina Board of Elections is great: they give you turnout by day, by type (mostly in person early voting), by gender and by party affiliation. This means you can compare the numbers to four years ago (when North Carolina also had an awful lot of early voting), and can draw some interesting conclusions. So, here they come: Turnout is up – and it’s mostly in person early voting. At this stage in 2016, 1.6 million people had voted early…

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