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Category: David Cameron

Did Gord and Nick go to the “wrong” universities?

Did Gord and Nick go to the “wrong” universities?

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Election Winning leader Alma mater 1945 Clement Attlee University of Oxford 1950 Clement Attlee University of Oxford 1951 Winston Churchill Non graduate 1955 Anthony Eden University of Oxford 1959 Harold Macmillan University of Oxford 1964 Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1966 Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1970 Edward Heath University of Oxford 1974 Feb Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1974 Oct Harold Wilson University of Oxford 1979 Margaret Thatcher University of Oxford 1983 Margaret Thatcher University of Oxford 1987 Margaret…

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So was Cameron the “Comeback Kid”?

So was Cameron the “Comeback Kid”?

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Who won 2nd debate? ICM AR YouGov ComRes Populus Cameron 29% 32% 36% 30% 37% Clegg 33% 33% 32% 33% 36% Brown 29% 23% 29% 30% 27% UPDATED 0755 Clegg wins by three pollsters to two Clearly there will be great relief in the blue camp about the outcome last night although, as can be seen, the message from the pollsters in their instant surveys was mixed. In terms of straight wins it was Clegg 3 Cameron 2 with Brown…

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Did Cameron peak too early?

Did Cameron peak too early?

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Ipsos-MORI Is 4.5 years as opposition leader just too long? One of the key sets of figures that overseas pundits always look for are the approval ratings and, indeed, the most linked to PB post from the US this week has been that on the huge rise in Clegg’s rating. Clearly there’s a stark contrast between the Clegg and Cameron position and doubt the Tory leader will have learned lessons from the first debate and step up his game tonight…

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Does this make a hung parliament LESS likely?

Does this make a hung parliament LESS likely?

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Do the resurgent yellows help Dave more than Gord? The main move in the betting in reaction to the debate has been an easing of the Tory overall majority prices – out from 1.74 at the start last night to 1.82 – and a tightening in the NOM price. This seems to be based on the assumption that the Lib Dems doing better makes the hung parliament possibility more likely – but is that right. Could a Clegg-induced boost actually…

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Do leaders now matter more than policies?

Do leaders now matter more than policies?

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Ipsos-MORI Does this mark a turning point? Whilst checking out the Ipsos-MORI website overnight I came across a fascinating paper on what the pollster describes as the “Presidentialisation’ of British politics? The chart is self-explanatory – the leader is becoming more important in the eyes of voters and we could reach a point at this election when it takes over as the main driver. The MORI paper goes on: “..In fact, past evidence has suggested that voters tend to underestimate…

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Could the Purples come to the aid of the Blues?

Could the Purples come to the aid of the Blues?

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Will the big tactical move be from UKIP backers? All the talk about tactical voting seems to be about the Lib Dems with polling evidence starting to suggest that they split at least 3-2 in favour of a victory for Brown’s Labour. But are we wrong to confine our thinking about tactical voting to just Nick Clegg’s party. Is the biggest source of potential movers from “others” – notably GREEN/BNP/UKIP which between them have been getting in excess of 10…

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Do the debates mean these numbers are more important?

Do the debates mean these numbers are more important?

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Q. “Is Brown/Cameron/Clegg doing well-badly as PM/CON leader/LD leader ……” 36-58% WELL:BADLY – BROWN 50-39% WELL:BADLY – CAMERON 42-28% WELL:BADLY – CLEGG Is this one of the consequences of the focus on the leaders? One of the strange features of British politics generally and this election build-up in particular is that almost nobody ever mentions the leader approval ratings. Unlike many other countries they are seen as not being irrelevant, the number of polls asking regular questions is declining and…

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