politicalbetting.com

A new feature on PB: “Mike Snyder (aka SeaShantyIrish is a writer, researcher and Democratic political hack based in Seattle, Washington. In early 1988 he was a field organizer for presidential hopeful Paul Simon (the senator not the singer!) in Winneshiek Co, Iowa; Simon won the county but lost the state. For the 2004 campaign, Mike mapped the progress of John Kerry’s Iowa field campaign. In 2008, Mike presided over his own precinct caucus in Seattle, where he personally voted…

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Why do the two firms have such different figures? Overnight I’ve received quite a few Tweets and emails asking if there’s an explanation for the very different voting intention figures in the polls for today’s papers. ICM in the Sunday Telegraph has a 6% CON lead while YouGov for the Sunday Times has LAB 3% ahead. We all, I guess, know that ICM carries out its voting surveys by phone which theoretically means that anybody in Britain with a landline…

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LAB drop to just 34% A new ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph has the Tories opening up a gap of six points over LAB with the LDs standing still at 14%. The is the first survey by the pollster since Cameron’s Brussels veto and it’s the best Tory position in any survey since the first coalition budget in June 2010. Many regard ICM as “the gold standard” and in May got the AV referendum right to within a stunning…

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How should he use his £200 worth of free bets? Firstly thanks to Marf for her new wonderful cartoon which will become the logo for the year’s poster of the year contest – due to take place over the holiday period. Secondly well done to Old_Labour who has won the PB Feltham by election competition Ranking Entrant Total error 1 old_labour 3.72 2 Harry Hayfield 4.04 3 Peter 4.71 4 Iapsis 4.89 5= Nick Palmer 5.09 5= TomS 5.09 5=…

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How likely is a change before the election? Thursday’s by-election win notwithstanding, the last month has not been a good one for Ed Miliband. Labour’s lead in the polls has evaporated and he’s been seen to under-perform both in response to the Autumn Statement and at PMQs, resulting in hostile off-the-record briefings from Shadow Cabinet members, never mind backbenchers or commentators. That’s inevitably led to speculation about his future as Labour leader, and as speculation is – in both senses…

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I’ve been very struck by the number of tributes today to Christopher Hitchens who has died at the age of just 61. Above is Marf’s tribute. This lecture by Hitchens, here, gives a good feel for the man. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH

Is the job going to the man Ed couldn’t remember? This weekend we find out who will be Labour’s next leader in Scotland. From early on in this protracted contest I’ve backed Ken Macintosh at a range of prices averaging 5/1. MacIntosh is the best communicator of all 3 candidates and only he has the personality to present an attractive case. I had hoped that he would be a runaway leader however his chief rival Lamont has performed well with…

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Party Share Change LABOUR 54.42 +10.79 CONSERVATIVE 27.71 -6.32 LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 5.87 -7,87 UKIP 5.49 +3.45 The good news and bad news Good news for Labour who saw an 8.5% swing from the Tories after a week when their national poll lead had vanished. More evidence of how effective the party is at defending by-elections. An excellent performance. Bad news for democracy because the turnout was just over 28% – the lowest for more than a decade. Good news for…

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