Based on data from Nate Silver’s 538 blogs/NYT Will the race be down to three by Saturday? The big news overnight in the race for the GOP nomination to fight Barack Obama is that John Huntsman is withdrawing. The news was hardly a surprise given he’s said all along that his continuation in the race depended on his showing in New Hampshire last Tuesday. In the end he came third in the state on just under 17% and the surprise…
Something for PB Nighthawks – a bit early
Betfair Politics
Has Miliband now crossed a threshold? More details of this morning’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times have started to emerge from behind the paywall. Although LAB is back into the lead on voting intention there’s gloomy news for Ed in the leader ratings when YouGov asks “Do you think Ed Miliband is doing well or badly as leader of the Labour party?” For the first time ever more party supporters say he’s doing a “bad job” than say he’s…
Something more for PB NightHawks to chew over There’s a new poll just our by ICM on Scottish independence for the Sunday Telegraph. The figures are 40% FOR independence and 43% for remaining in the UK. Amongst the English voters polled 43% support Scottish independence with only 32% opposed. Only those in Scotland, of course, will be allowed to vote. But the poll is not all good news for Alex Salmond. The paper’s Patrick Hennessy notes:- “..Today’s poll provides a…
Would the SNP be able to keep the pound? I’ve just caught up on catch-up with last night’s Any Questions on Radio 4 which turned into a primer on the Scottish referendum. It was one of the best programmes that I have heard. What struck me particularly was the discussion on what a post-independence Scottish currency would be – a question that is not as simple as it appears. The choices seem to be the Euro, creating a new Scottish…
What’ll be the impact in the UK, France and beyond? Politics is a relative game. The good lose out to the best; the mediocre beat the poor. Whether a government is seen as doing a good job depends partly on whether people feel good about their lives and confident in their future, but more on whether they think someone else could do better internally, and whether others are doing better overseas. As such, the decision of Standard & Poors to…
A poser for PB NightHawks as they “gather” in the cafe A couple of pieces of news that suggest something might be happening – first in William Hill press release that the firm has slashed its odds against Ed Miliband not leading Labour into the next General Election from 2/1 to 8/11. They now offer evens that he WILL still be leader when the Election takes place. ‘In the space of a few minutes we received a sudden rush of…