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Category: Coalition

It’s time to start betting on PRESIDENT Mitt Romney

It’s time to start betting on PRESIDENT Mitt Romney

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Betfair Politics The news tonight that ex-senator Rick Santorum is pulling out of the race sets the seal on what everybody has known since the Wisconsin primary last Tuesday – Mitt Romney is going to be the nominee. For smart punters who like to trade this presents a great opportuntiy for currently the UK’s main betting exchange, Betfair, prices Romney as just a 30.1% chance to become the next president. In my judgement, backed up by a four figure bet,…

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Was re-selecting Ken a monumental blunder?

Was re-selecting Ken a monumental blunder?

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How can he compete with the likable Boris? There’s a new ComRes poll for the London mayoralty which has, in the final two forced choice, Boris beating Ken by 53% to 47%. More interesting, given the importance of leader ratings in predicting outcomes, are the like him/like his party responses with ComRes using the format that was developed by Ipsos-MORI. As can be seen Boris has a massive likability lead over Ken and if the official LAB man makes the…

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FLASHBACK: It’s 20 years to the day since the Tories won a majority

FLASHBACK: It’s 20 years to the day since the Tories won a majority

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Will we ever see a result like this again? I hope you are watching the re-run of the results programme on the BBC Parliament channel. As can be seen from the screen-shot above the exit poll was very much out – as were the final opinion polls. Only one of them, Gallup, showed a Tory lead and that was of just 0.5%. In the end the blue team won a majority and a GB vote lead of 7.5%. This was…

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Is the Mail group giving up on Cameron?

Is the Mail group giving up on Cameron?

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Mail on Sunday Could it be pressing for a pre-election change Sometimes the most important factors about a poll are not the findings but how the commissioning newspaper is covering it. That, I’d suggest, is the case today with the Mail on Sunday’s April survey by Survation. By any standards the coverage, seen in the panel reproduced above, is not very friendly and suggests that the paper would not be too upset if Cameron stood down. Simon Walters writes ..Perhaps…

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LAB drops 4 as many more get on the UKIP bus

LAB drops 4 as many more get on the UKIP bus

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Farage’s party moves to equal third place slot with the LDs There’s a new voting intention poll out for the Mail on Sunday which has others, including UKIP, at 24% which I believe is a record and suggests a move away from the established parties. The shares are with changes on March: CON 30 (-1): LAB 35 (-4): LD 11 (nc): UKIP 11 (+3). The 30% CON share is the lowest from any pollster for the party since Cameron became…

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ComRes kicks off what could be a terrible Easter for ministers

ComRes kicks off what could be a terrible Easter for ministers

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Dave/George/Nick slump to record lows on economic trust Since October 2010 the ComRes polling for ITV news has asked who people trust to lead the country through the current economic situation. The April figures are bad for the coalition:- David Cameron’s trust figure is down five to 31% and the do not trust David Cameron increasing six to 53% George Osborne’s trust figure is just 21% with 60%, up eight from last month, saying they do not trust the Chancellor…

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