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LAB lead down from 11 to 7 in tonight’s Indy/ComRes phone poll. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=54034 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 26, 2012 The ComRes phone poll, one of just four we get each month using this methodology, is just out and, as can be seen, the LAB lead of 11% or a month ago becomes 7% with the Tories moving up 2 and Labour moving down 2. Most of the fieldwork took place while the Rotherham fostering case was making the…

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Henry G Manson makes the case David Cameron’s quote about UKIP has been bandied around the press this weekend amid speculation he may distance himself from it. He was right not to do so. Whatever the politics or prejudices of UKIP supporters there are things we do know about them in the public domain. They’re not something that any mainstream political party should have anything to do with. There also those in UKIP rejected by the Conservatives because they no…

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Nadine in fighting form in LBC interview with Iain Dale bit.ly/UlXORf twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 25, 2012 Over to you Mr Chief Whip Nadine Dorries spoke to Iain Dale from Australia this morning on LBC 97.3 DALE: Going back to the issue of sexism, it’s been interesting that a lot of the MPs who have been most critical of you have actually been female Conservative MPs. Do you think that they’re going to send you to Coventry when…

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David Herdson on the options for Osborne When George Osborne delivers his Autumn statement on December 5, the figures in his report will be at best mixed: the deficit is down on the peak but not by as much as expected and progress may have ground to a halt; employment is at record levels but long-term unemployment is also rising; above all, while growth returned to the UK economy in Q3, the annual performance has been well below expectations and…

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Since September at Ladbrokes Ed Miliband has moved from a 45% chance of becoming PM before 2020 to a 60% one twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2012 But is the 4/6 price now too tight? From a betting standpoint EdM has had a good 12 months. Three big things have happened. The Osborne budget in March was a turning point and became the peg for the media narrative on the competence of Dave/George. Since then LAB has enjoyed…

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LAB moves to its biggest ever lead in a ComRes poll. See table. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=53790 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 17, 2012 And there’s goodish news for UKIP & the LDs ComRes operate two entirely separate polls. The monthly phone surveys for the Independent and a much less expensive online poll for the Sunday Mirror and the Independent. Tonight we have the latter with the shares above. The voting intention shares are showing the trend seen in the week’s only…

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Bedfordshire was LAB’s best PCC result. At the gen election it was 17% behind. The Nadine effect? www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=53787 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 17, 2012 At the 2010 general election the aggregate vote in the Bedfordshire police authority area was CON 44.91 LAB 27.28 LD 20.7 yet on Thursday Labour managed to win the Police Commissioner vote in what looks like its best result nationally. Interestingly turnout was higher in the urban areas of Luton and Bedford compared with…

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Afactor driving the low turnout in the #PCCwas that there was virtually no national media coverage because no election in London — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 16, 2012 “Bugger off!” Prescott tells waiting journalists — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) November 16, 2012 PCS union says low PCC turnout “should sound death knell for Tory-led cries for thresholds for union ballots” – bit.ly/UKftOM — AndrewSparrow (@AndrewSparrow) November 16, 2012