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Lynton Crosby could do it again next week and give the Tories outright power on a third of the vote

Lynton Crosby could do it again next week and give the Tories outright power on a third of the vote

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Or will the “good guys” win this time? Canadians go to the polls next week in an election that has echoes of the British General Election in May – the most intriguing being the involvement of Lynton Crosby. Prime Minister Stephen Harper hopes the Australian can repeat what he did for David Cameron — magic an outright victory in an election where the Tory poll numbers have been limping along in the low thirties. That was how the final polls…

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The flaw in Corbyn’s plan to win the next election by signing up non-voters and the young

The flaw in Corbyn’s plan to win the next election by signing up non-voters and the young

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Intriguing. @jeremycorbyn plan to win next election is to change the electorate – signing up non-voters & the young. @BBCr4today — Nick Robinson (@bbcnickrobinson) September 30, 2015 Labour risk piling up votes where they don’t need it Mr Corbyn’s plan has the major flaw that in the 100 seats with the lowest turnout in England Labour hold 94 of them, and 95 out of the 100 seats with the lowest turnout in England and Wales. When you extend the analysis…

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Corbyn’s English challenge

Corbyn’s English challenge

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Labour need to stop piling up votes in their safe English seats Looking at the chart above we can see that in England Labour did best where it didn’t need to and the Tories did best where they did need to do well. In England overall there was a swing of 1.1% from the Tories to Labour but in the crucial battle ground of the fifty most marginal Tory held seats there was a swing of 0.9% FROM Labour to…

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Policies not leadership will win this election

Policies not leadership will win this election

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Front page of the Mail on Sunday with the Tory policy announcement on IHT pic.twitter.com/bTbs0LobRj — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 11, 2015 Front page of the Independent on Sunday with the Lab policy announcement on tax avoidance pic.twitter.com/JYR3DKJPCt — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 11, 2015   Last night saw the the emergence of a major policy announcement by both the Tories and Labour, these can be seen as the appetising hors-d’oeuvre before the main course that is the manifesto launches in the…

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If you live in the marginals expect US style political attack ads appearing in your youtube feed

If you live in the marginals expect US style political attack ads appearing in your youtube feed

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Above is one of the most notorious US political attack ads.   Buzzfeed are reporting that [The] Tories Bring US-Style Political Attack Adverts To The UK In Time For The Election. Paid-for political advertising on TV and radio has always been banned in the UK. But there’s no such restriction on using YouTube, and BuzzFeed News understands the Conservatives are already spending the money. Whilst many have doubts the impact of the internet and social media on a general election campaign,…

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CON fights back against UKIP with what’s been a hugely effective voter mobilisation strategy in the US

CON fights back against UKIP with what’s been a hugely effective voter mobilisation strategy in the US

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This from the Tories look like a smart campaigning import from the US. The PM wants to talk to ME pic.twitter.com/EwzBsI03ta — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2014 Big data giving the personal touch This morning Tory chairman, Grant Shapps, sent me the above email with an invitation to take part in a conference call with the Prime Minister tonight. Although the text doesn’t say it specifically there’s a suggestion that I could be in dialogue with Mr. Cameron. On…

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European Elections 2009 : Summary of Results

European Elections 2009 : Summary of Results

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European Election Results 2009 Conservatives 4,193,706 votes (27.63%) winning 272 count areas and 25 MEP’s United Kingdom Independence Party 2,495,782 votes (16.44%) winning 9 count areas and 13 MEP’s Labour 2,375,361 votes (15.65%) winning 59 count areas and 13 MEP’s Liberal Democrats 2,078,723 votes (13.70%) winning 11 count areas and 11 MEP’s Green Party 1,302,705 votes (8.58%) winning 3 count areas and 2 MEP’s British National Party 941,491 votes (6.20%) winning 0 count areas and 2 MEP’s Scottish National Party…

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The Christmas Game: Part I

The Christmas Game: Part I

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Many thanks to Harry Hayfield, for providing the fun for Christmas Day on PB. Below are the The Google Earth outline of five UK parliamentary constituencies. Can you guess what those constituencies are? The only clue being all the maps are aligned North to South. The answers will be posted when the thread for constituencies six to ten is published this afternoon. Have fun guessing one to five. TSE Constituency One Constituency Two Constituency Three Constituency Four Constituency Five