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Category: By elections

The big unknown – the level of Ukip tactical swtching to the Tories to stop the Lib Dems

The big unknown – the level of Ukip tactical swtching to the Tories to stop the Lib Dems

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Maria Hutchings with Grant Shapps/Michael Green twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 17, 2013 Eastleigh could be a guide to GE2015 The Lord Ashcroft Eastleigh poll carried out before any candidates had been selected found that just 50% of those who’d voted CON at GE2010 said that they would do so again at the by-election. The biggest segment of the remainder, representing 21% of 2010 CON voters were those saying don’t know. A total of 9% said they’d switch to…

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Is this further proof of why UKIP are not capable of winning Parliamentary seats

Is this further proof of why UKIP are not capable of winning Parliamentary seats

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According to the Telegraph, UKIP has sent out the above leaflet. Saying Eastleigh deserves better. It certainly does. The leaflets have been put through doors in Colden Common, which is not part of the Eastleigh constituency. Given the gimmicks UKIP have used in the past, it isn’t surprising they finished third in a two-horse race in Buckingham. What makes this mistake in Eastleigh even more alarming for UKIP was that Mike Smithson was told last week. #Eastleigh, I’m told, is…

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So what is this going to do to the Eastleigh by election outcome

So what is this going to do to the Eastleigh by election outcome

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  Last night Labour selected John O’Farrell as their candidate for the Eastleigh by-election, this predictably attracted a lot of comment, and some movement in the betting. Such as the below tweet by the Political Editor of the Sun. By selecting John O’Farrell, have Labour made #Eastleigh a Tory win? He’ll take 1,000+ votes off the Libs. Tories delighted. — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) February 13, 2013 My first instinct was to back Labour on Ladbrokes’ match vote bet with UKIP, and…

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Could the party of Nigel Farage really end up winning more #Eastleigh votes than Labour?

Could the party of Nigel Farage really end up winning more #Eastleigh votes than Labour?

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Nigel Farage in Eastleigh twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 10, 2013 There were reports last night of other Eastleigh polls in the field that had the party order at LD, CON, Ukip with LAB in fourth place. Quite what the veractity of that information is I don’t know and in by-elections like this we have to treat reports of unpublished surveys with extreme scepticism. But what has become apparent is that in terms of planning and organisation there are…

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Hills make it 5-1 that UKIP will win a by-election this parliament

Hills make it 5-1 that UKIP will win a by-election this parliament

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I’d need better odds than that William Hill have put up a new market on whether UKIP, now riding high, will win a parliamentary by-election this parliament, With the election scheduled for May 2015 the by-election would have to occur within the next two years and five months and after the latest crop there are none in the offing. The bet breaks down into two elements – the chances of a suitable by-election coming up and the chances of UKIP…

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Labour makes it six out of six in the November by-elections

Labour makes it six out of six in the November by-elections

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As predicted by the betting markets three emphatic wins for LAB in the three by-elections twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 30, 2012 After the overnight by-elections Ladbrokes make it 2/1 shot that UKIP wins a seat at next general election. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 30, 2012 Ladbrokes is offering 4/1 that UKIP outvotes the Lib Dems at the next general election. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 30, 2012 An okay night for UKIP but still miles…

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US-based punters continue to rate Romney’s chances much better than Betfair ones

US-based punters continue to rate Romney’s chances much better than Betfair ones

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The Intrade market with its large US customer base has Romney 10% higher than Betfair. see chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2012 Betfair Romney price shows just a small dip in past 24 hours. See chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 4, 2012 Betfair, of course goes to great lengths to ensure that people in the US cannot use its services. I’ve not moved my own betting – still make the same profits whichever one wins….

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