At this time of the year I look forward to seeing the predictions of the voters for the upcoming year as collated by Ipsos MORI. It looks pretty grim for Boris Johnson and Sir Keir Starmer with a majority of the public thinking Boris Johnson will not be the Prime Minister at the end of 2022 whilst more people think Starmer will not be Labour leader by the end of 2022 than do. Like Gordon Brown, Boris Johnson wanted to…
I like this market from Smarkets because it allows you to bet on Boris Johnson’s future without getting dragged into the Boris Johnson exit markets where predicting the year of his exit which can be fraught with difficulties. This market is a simple will enough Conservative MPs write a letter to Sir Graham Brady to trigger a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson before the next general election. My expectation is that the Conservatives will hold North Shropshire on…
Today’s Times reports on a couple of polls, first of is a YouGov poll they commissioned which shows Two thirds of the public said they would support national insurance going up from 12 per cent to 13 per cent for the NHS and social care, YouGov found. Increasing national insurance would be more popular than putting up income tax, the poll suggests. Fifty-one per cent backed a 1p increase in income tax for increased health spending. I wonder if this is…
The lead story in the Telegraph this morning is under the heading “Exclusive: Vaccination won’t mean an end to self-isolating”. This is in sharp contrast to the strategy being followed by the Biden administration in the US where those who are fully vaccinated don’t need to self-isolate if they have come into contact with someone who has had Covid unless they are showing symptoms. This is based on guidance from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Contrast that…
Singling out nurses for special treatment could spark off a host of other public service pay demands The Jenny McGee story makes most of the front pages this morning and is likely to continue to get attention for a week or so until after the Channel 4 programe she features in goes out. This touches a few issues including BREXIT which has made the UK more difficult for trained foreign nurses and the need for the government to keep public…
And just two weeks later I find it very difficult to explain such a huge change within 2-weeks even though that period did include the May 6th local elections. Certainly, all the media narrative following the elections was questioning Starmer’s position and Labour’s performance which was reinforced by the party’s loss of the Hartlepool Westminster by-election. But in the counts that took place on the Friday and Saturday some less good results for the Tories emerged particularly in Oxfordshire, Cambridgeshire,…
But will Boris be forced into another U-turn? This is a massive day for those of us in England who have been waiting so long to be able to see loved ones, to go inside a pub, or to eat out INSIDE a restaurant. It is also a huge day for those like PB regular Cyclefree above in the hospitality industry whose families have struggled to keep their businesses alive while faced with the COVID constraints. I have been hugely…
Could the blues end up a net LOSER of seats? As we know local elections are scheduled for every May with a different set of seats coming up each year on a four year cycle. So this year we have those that were last contested in 2017 as well as the 2016 cohort which should have been voted on on last year It is the 2017 cohort that potentially could be challenging for the Tories. As can be seen from…