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New polling tonight finds 78% saying they’ll comply with the latest lockdown regime

New polling tonight finds 78% saying they’ll comply with the latest lockdown regime

New polling just published by Savanta ComRes finds that the overwhelming proportion of people in England plan to comply with the latest lockdown regime aimed at stemming the spread of COVID. This is broadly in line with surveys at earlier times during the pandemic. The pollsters hasn’t stated this specifically but it appears to have been carried out after the latest announcement from Johnson.

Boris’s big Christmas gamble

Boris’s big Christmas gamble

It is a very fine gamble for Christmas – not actually tightening the regulations that can be legally enforced but rather toughening up the guidance for how people should operate during the 5 designated days of the Christmas period. You can see how conflicted ministers have been because if there had been any more tougher controls then those affected could say said they had planned Christmas and in many cases laid out money on what had been announced previously. But…

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In the betting a “deal” moves to a 72% chance following positive vibes from the talks

In the betting a “deal” moves to a 72% chance following positive vibes from the talks

While all eyes in the US are focused on the Electoral College vote count which is taking place today in Europe there’ve been positive indications from the talks in Brussels with the EU and UK agreeing to keep talks on a trade agreement going. There are still differences but there does appear to be a desire on both sides to find an agreement and this is what has driven the changes on Smarkets exchange betting market as in their chart…

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On the betting markets NO DEAL becomes favourite once again as the Brussels talks flounder

On the betting markets NO DEAL becomes favourite once again as the Brussels talks flounder

The big news in the UK is that so far Boris Johnson has failed in his attempt to reach an agreement with the EU on the terms of a tree trade deal that would come into effect once the Brexit transition period. The betting chart from the Smarkets exchange shows the movement and things could develop very quickly. I remain of the view that a deal will be reached and what we are seeing is the usual going right to…

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Two warnings for Johnson in today’s YouGov poll

Two warnings for Johnson in today’s YouGov poll

The gender divides that should concern the Tories There’s a new YouGov poll out with its regular trackers two of which should seriously concern Johnson as the EU discussions reach a critical stage. Brexit Wrong continues to have a double digit lead in the firm’s regular question that has been asked at least twice a month since the 2016 referendum. To the question “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”…

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As Boris heads to Brussels to try to revive the negotiations the betting money edges up to no deal

As Boris heads to Brussels to try to revive the negotiations the betting money edges up to no deal

Smarkets The price of failure and could be very high Time is running out for a deal to be reached between Britain and the EU and all the signs are that things are going badly. A lot rests on whether Boris can find a last ditch way forward that’s acceptable in Brussels and to his own backbench MPs. The above chart from Smarkets illustrates how punters are reacting. The cost of a non deal could be very high as Matthew…

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Leaver or Limpet – How long with Johnson lead?

Leaver or Limpet – How long with Johnson lead?

When dictionaries announce their ‘Word of the Year’ it will undoubtedly be ‘COVID’, ‘Social Distancing’, or something related. But ‘Superforecaster’ is another word which has had a big 2020. Promoted by Dominic Cummings, who gave copies of Philip Tetlock’s ‘Superforecasting’ to all SpAds as required reading, a Superforecaster is someone very skilled in the practice of prediction. While they aren’t flawless, their track record is impressive. I raise this because political punters (and gamblers of all kinds) could learn a…

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The UK set to be the first where people are vaccinated

The UK set to be the first where people are vaccinated

One of the big gambles that Johnson and his team has made has been to pre-order tens of millions of vaccines spread out across different potential suppliers. The big one is for the Oxford jab which is now going through its final tests with the expectation that it will soon be available. This afternoon’s news is that approval of the Pfizer vaccine, which has also be pre-bought by the government, is set to get the thumbs up in days and…

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