This really is the end of an era The big UK political news this morning is that it appears that Dominic Cummings is on the way out as Johnson seeks to reset his team in an effort to try to pull his party’s and personal ratings back up. There’s nothing official yet but when asked about his future plans he replied “My position hasn’t changed since my January blog.”. In that lengthy post he had written “We want to improve…
Above is the market from Smarkets, the betting exchange that unlike Betfair settled Biden bets at the weekend, on whether there’ll be a UK deal with the EU by the end of December. Undoubtedly what happened on November 3rd in the US and the prospect of President Biden has impacted on punters. The chances of a quick deal with the US in the event of a no-deal Brexit must have greatly diminished and that is something that the UK and…
With Trump continuing to fight the verdict of voters in last week’s election there’s a warning to the White House from former adviser to Republican presidents and longstanding GOP operative, Karl Rove, about the current en passe. Writing in the Wall Street Journal he notes: To win, Mr. Trump must prove systemic fraud, with illegal votes in the tens of thousands. There is no evidence of that so far. Unless some emerges quickly, the president’s chances in court will decline…
Above is the latest betting chart from Betdata.io of the £600m Betfair next president market. With sore looser Trump continuing to refuse to accept that he was defeated and now blocking the formal transition process punters on Betfair are increasingly rating him as the winner up from a 4% chance at the weekend to a 9% chance now. Quite how long this will continue is hard to say but could we really see on January 20th, the day of the…
Chart from Smarkets A week after the American election and four days after the results showed Biden on his way to victory and so far President Trump has failed to concede. It has very much gone the other way with all leading members of the Trump administration and prominent Republicans backing his notion that that there could have been voter fraud and he wasn’t going to stand aside. Biden meanwhile is very much acting as the President elect making an…
Map Wikipedia The area highlighted in the map above is the state of Georgia which over the next seven weeks will see a political battle almost on the scale of the fight between Biden and trump for the Presidency. For although Joe Biden won the White House Race last Tuesday his party failed to take control of the Senate and without that he is very much limited in what he can do. For starters Biden wants to be able to…
“The first thing we do, let’s kill all the lawyers.” A cheer from half the audience at that and its response (“that I mean to do”); a groan from the other half followed. Whoever would have thought a Barbican audience would consist of lawyers and their clients! Would society be better with fewer laws and lawyers? Lawyers’ concerns at recent Ministerial comments led to a letter signed by 800 of them – to the Guardian, neatly reinforcing the “lefty lawyers” caricature….
As the war of words goes on and Trump and his lackeys go on the offensive over voter fraud claims Fox News pulls the plug. This could be significant. Trump really needs Fox and this makes current effort even harder.