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Category: Betting

WH2020 passes another milestone making Trump’s effort to discredit the results even more challenging – Safe Harbour Day

WH2020 passes another milestone making Trump’s effort to discredit the results even more challenging – Safe Harbour Day

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Tuesday was “Safe Harbour Day” Tuesday saw another important key date for Donald Trump as he desperately tries to deny the results of the presidential election and somehow cling onto power. For it was what is known as “Safe Harbour Day” which last became an issue at WH2000 when Bush squeezed victory over Gore following the very tight race in Florida. NBC News explains it in this way: The Electoral Count Act was passed in 1887, after four states sent…

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As Boris heads to Brussels to try to revive the negotiations the betting money edges up to no deal

As Boris heads to Brussels to try to revive the negotiations the betting money edges up to no deal

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Smarkets The price of failure and could be very high Time is running out for a deal to be reached between Britain and the EU and all the signs are that things are going badly. A lot rests on whether Boris can find a last ditch way forward that’s acceptable in Brussels and to his own backbench MPs. The above chart from Smarkets illustrates how punters are reacting. The cost of a non deal could be very high as Matthew…

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On Smarkets the chances of the Democrats taking both the House and Senate move from 20% to 30%

On Smarkets the chances of the Democrats taking both the House and Senate move from 20% to 30%

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Betting chart from Smarkets We are now just four weeks away from the Georgia runoffs which will decide whether it is the Republicans or Dems who will control the Senate an outcome either way that have a huge impact on US politics over the coming years. The polls have showed both races getting tighter and last night there were the TV debates in which the big highlight was Democrat Jon Ossoff debating an empty podium which allowed him to repeatedly…

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Leaver or Limpet – How long with Johnson lead?

Leaver or Limpet – How long with Johnson lead?

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When dictionaries announce their ‘Word of the Year’ it will undoubtedly be ‘COVID’, ‘Social Distancing’, or something related. But ‘Superforecaster’ is another word which has had a big 2020. Promoted by Dominic Cummings, who gave copies of Philip Tetlock’s ‘Superforecasting’ to all SpAds as required reading, a Superforecaster is someone very skilled in the practice of prediction. While they aren’t flawless, their track record is impressive. I raise this because political punters (and gamblers of all kinds) could learn a…

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A Trump branded TV channel being by the end of next month?

A Trump branded TV channel being by the end of next month?

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I expect on the day of Biden’s inauguration Trump will do something spectacular, whilst I wouldn’t rule out Trump nuking Iran just before power transfers to Biden, I do expect something political. One of these things might be Trump announcing his intention to run for the GOP nomination in 2024 but if he might (also) announce plans for a Trump television channel. You can imagine Trump ranting about the fake news, lamestream media that hasn’t investigated Biden’s cheating, so that’s…

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And Betfair hasn’t even settled the £40m popular vote market

And Betfair hasn’t even settled the £40m popular vote market

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Cook Political Report We have had a fair go at Betfair in recent days for its failure to settle the main WH2020 which, according to its initial market rules, would be based on which candidate had the most projected Electoral College Votes. This was something that was settled in the eyes of the US media exactly four weeks ago today. That was enough for just about the rest of the UK betting industry to settle the main market including Betfair’s…

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That’s whose prerogative?

That’s whose prerogative?

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The government’s just introduced another constitutional time-bomb Rather quietly, the government announced this week the death sentence for the unfairly unloved Fixed-Term Parliaments Act. In truth, it was not that bad a piece of legislation; one which took a power away from the executive and handed it to parliament, at least in small measure. However, two snap elections in a row – one of which came about by circumventing the Act’s provisions – undermined any sense of a new state…

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Liz Truss now edges above Sunak in latest CONHome members’ survey

Liz Truss now edges above Sunak in latest CONHome members’ survey

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The girl from the Leeds comprehensive on +75.4% while Etonian Boris just +2.9% I do like the way month by month CON home carries its survey of the views of party members on Cabinet ministers and the latest has a new leader – Liz Truss Secretary of State for International Trade and President of the Board of Trade and former President of the Oxford University Liberal Democrats. Given that it is the party membership that ultimately elects the leader and,…

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