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Category: Betting

The Electoral College Vote goes to Biden who, as expected, secures 306 votes

The Electoral College Vote goes to Biden who, as expected, secures 306 votes

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And Betfair finally pays out What has been by far the biggest political betting market ever was finally resolved overnight when the Electoral College met and Biden is now officially the President-elect. But there is another hurdle. The results get reported to Congress on January 6th and if members in both houses decide to put it to the vote then that will take place in both the House an Senate. The former should be fine for Biden but the Senate…

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In the betting a “deal” moves to a 72% chance following positive vibes from the talks

In the betting a “deal” moves to a 72% chance following positive vibes from the talks

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While all eyes in the US are focused on the Electoral College vote count which is taking place today in Europe there’ve been positive indications from the talks in Brussels with the EU and UK agreeing to keep talks on a trade agreement going. There are still differences but there does appear to be a desire on both sides to find an agreement and this is what has driven the changes on Smarkets exchange betting market as in their chart…

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Even today with the Electoral College meeting Betfair punters rate Trump’s chances at 3%

Even today with the Electoral College meeting Betfair punters rate Trump’s chances at 3%

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As the Betdarta.io chart shows the Betfair WH2020 is still open more than five weeks after other bookies settled Biden as the winner. The total of matched bets on Betfair is now heading for £1.7m BILLION which is up more than billion since the other bookies settled their markets in the weekend after the election. What has driven the continuation of this market has been the readiness of some punters to bet on Donald Trump even though the numbers are…

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The Trump denial saga: 8 Republicans elected to the House last month backed move which would have cost them their seats

The Trump denial saga: 8 Republicans elected to the House last month backed move which would have cost them their seats

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The failure of Trump to win re-election last month and his absolute determination not to acknowledge the fact is creating some amazing oddities for the Republican party. The latest legal appeal that went to the Supreme Court was actually backed by more than 100 members of the House of Representatives and 8 of them were from the four states where Trump is trying to annul the results. The reason they felt pressured to do this and why there has been…

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The Supreme Court rejects the move by Texas to overturn Biden’s victory

The Supreme Court rejects the move by Texas to overturn Biden’s victory

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Now there are no barriers to the Electoral College meeting on Monday Overnight (UK time) the Supreme Court in Washington rejected the bid by the State of Texas to overturn President-elect Biden’s election win in what must be seen as a devastating blow to the long-shot legal efforts by Trump and his supporters to stave off his electoral defeat. This comes ahead of the meeting of the Electoral College on Monday where Biden’s victory will be confirmed and hopefully be a…

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On the betting markets NO DEAL becomes favourite once again as the Brussels talks flounder

On the betting markets NO DEAL becomes favourite once again as the Brussels talks flounder

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The big news in the UK is that so far Boris Johnson has failed in his attempt to reach an agreement with the EU on the terms of a tree trade deal that would come into effect once the Brexit transition period. The betting chart from the Smarkets exchange shows the movement and things could develop very quickly. I remain of the view that a deal will be reached and what we are seeing is the usual going right to…

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Two warnings for Johnson in today’s YouGov poll

Two warnings for Johnson in today’s YouGov poll

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The gender divides that should concern the Tories There’s a new YouGov poll out with its regular trackers two of which should seriously concern Johnson as the EU discussions reach a critical stage. Brexit Wrong continues to have a double digit lead in the firm’s regular question that has been asked at least twice a month since the 2016 referendum. To the question “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?”…

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