Slight – very slight – movements to Harris at national level for everyone, but it’s still finely balanced. PEC has moved enough to make Harris a slight favourite. For the Senate, the Republicans are still favoured, although the Morning Consult poll (Sep 9-18) putting Allred ahead of Cruz by 1 moves TX into tied territory for both 538 and electoral-vote. RCP have yet to add that poll to their figures. James Doyle
There was some slight movement away from Jenrick over the weekend following the revelations about one of his donors but he has largely recovered over on Betfair. If you’re not mentally prepared for Robert Jenrick as Tory leader then you should be. TSE
Despite polls such as today’s NBC poll putting Harris 5% ahead (the first time either Harris or Biden have led this year) I still maintain that this is a close election so this election will be one with marginal gains so I pay great attention to stories like the one AP are reporting in the Tweet above. As a keen activist I know that knocking on doors and working those maybes to yeses then knocking them up on election day…
And He said to them, “Go into all the world and preach the gospel to every creature. Whoever believes and is baptized will be saved, but whoever does not believe will be condemned. And these signs will accompany those who believe: In My name they will drive out demons; they will speak in new tongues; they will pick up snakes with their hands, and if they drink any deadly poison, it will not harm them; they will lay their hands on…
When Anna Coke married Colin Paget Tennant in the 1950s, for their honeymoon he took her to Paris, where the bride lost her virginity in awkward and painful circumstances, then her husband took his bride to partake in an orgy in a seedy Paris hotel, later on he took her to a stage show where a man made love to a donkey. I mention this story because I was struggling to think about a worse honeymoon than the one Sir…
If Reform want to win more MPs at the next election then they need to lower the number of voters who think Reform are extreme, should not be near power, nasty, and dishonest. I’m not sure those figures will improve whilst Nigel Farage continues to be Donald Trump’s personal proctologist. TSE
Earlier on this week I said I was expecting Donald Trump to win the electoral college then somebody who I respect when it comes to polling and politics told me I was epically wrong. They told me to remember one of Mike Smithson’s adages that close to an election the net favourability scores are often a better predictor of election outcomes than standard voting intentions. As we can see above from FiveThirtyEight Kamala Harris has better net approval ratings than…
Will Kemi’s class warfare work? It’s an interesting approach from Kemi Badenoch, I suspect it won’t have much positive impact on Tory MPs but could have an impact with Tory members with her effectively telling Cambridge educated lawyer Robert Jenrick that she is prolier than thou. This is the Starmer approach who occasionally mentioned he was the son of a toolmaker, that led him to winning a majority of over 200 seats at the election. She needs to do something…