Paranoia or should be worried about shy Trumpers?
I find this kind of polling fascinating, I think it is down Dems worried about Trump winning. TSE
Today is the day of crossover
I still think Kemi Badenoch is the one to lay in this market it is quite interesting that the market has switched sharply since yesterday in the aftermath of Robert Jenrick’s comments about Allahu Akbar, even though his context made the comments less inflammatory and less stupid than originally implied. Whilst both Jenrick and Badenoch do well with Tory members it is Tory MPs who shortlist the final two, I can see a pathway that sees Tom Tugendhat and James…
Crossover happened overnight
Crossover happened overnight and it was inevitable wasn’t it? Every day gives us polling showing Harris is on course for victory. The two most striking polls yesterday were the ones in the tweet above and the poll which showed Harris leading Trump by 1% in the Rust Belt, the previous poll had Trump 5% ahead. All those hypothetical polls before Biden’s decision to stand down saying Biden was the only Dem who could beat Trump is a reminder that multi…
Jenrick remains the favourite to succeed Sunak
I suspect on a practical such a level will be unenforceable because do we really want a law that makes saying God is great is illegal in Arabic but legal in saying it in English, Latin, Greek, Urdu, and a plethora of other languages? This is a law that is nearly as stupid as the people proposing/support such a law. Older PBers will remember when Mrs Thatcher’s government banned the voices of Sinn Fein to be heard on television so…
Sofa so good, Tim Walz is an inspired pick
I hate to brag but as I predicted last month it looks like crossover on the main Betfair presidential market is about to happen very shortly and I thought a good Veep pick might be the tipping point and it looks like it. It’s difficult to not like Tim Walz, he was the guy who came up with the idea of labelling Trump/Vance as weird and is with the clip above he’s quite witty playing on the meme that JD…
Should we start describing Kamala as the favourite for the White House Race?
If Kamala Harris can maintain this momentum into September then this becomes her election to lose as I expect her to receive a bump after the convention. Picking Tim Walz as her running mate should solidify the lead Harris has as they look very impressive particularly compared to the weirdos that are the gruesome twosome on the Republican ticket. TSE
Austerity is popular
This polling is a bit of a curate’s egg for Labour a majority of the country support the Chancellor’s following George Osborne’s steps to cut public spending but by nearly 2:1 the country say it is being done in an unfair way as opposed to a fair way. There are no exit markets for Rachel Reeves but I don’t think Sir Keir Starmer will do a Liz Truss and ditch the Chancellor at the first sign of problems/unpopularity. TSE
Team Harris will take this right now
Replacing Biden with Harris is looking like a great decision so far. Ceteris paribus Trump is likely to win the election if he loses the popular by this margin but we need to start talking about the possibility of Harris winning the election despite losing the popular vote. The more the self confessed pussy grabber chickens out a debate I think this lead will widen for Harris. Like Labour this side of the pond it is possible the Democratic vote…