This is fascinating polling, which shows that Walz is seen as positive whereas J.D. Vance isn’t. Vance appears to be one of those weirdos who hates cats and their owners whereas Walz seems designed to appeal to ordinary Americans. The choice of running mates will not ultimately impact the election result, people vote for the top of the ticket, I’ve said this election will be decided by independents and it isn’t looking good for Trump on that front. TSE
The Sun report that because Labour have scheduled the budget for the 30th of October, just before the new Tory leader is announced on the 2nd of November some Tories are thinking about bringing forward the election of the new leader to the 26th of October to ensure the new leader can respond to the budget. It will also give the Tories some headroom to enjoy some publicity without being drowned by the US presidential election which is currently scheduled…
For me the key finding from Nate Silver’s analysis is this Harris has improved on Biden’s numbers by somewhere between 3.9 points and 8.5 points in literally every swing state — and by more than 7 points nationally. It’s a completely transformed race. But the race is still too close to call in my humble opinion. TSE
At the time there were plenty of comments criticising Sir Ed Davey’s stunts during the campaign but they certainly got him noticed. Rishi Sunak partaking in the most ignominious exit from mainland Europe since the Dieppe Raid certainly damaged him as did the betting scandal. If these two incidents didn’t happen perhaps the Tories could have pushed the Tories up to 150 seats? Sir Keir Starmer must feel a bit of a tool, given how often he mentioned he was…
If there were an election today I’d expect Donald Trump to win and the reasons in the above tweet explains why. We’re not at the point where I think Trump is value. Polls aren’t static, and with fewer than three months to election day there’s enough time for the polls to change either way and it could be utterly grim based on the Trump campaign, he’s not so much as using racist dog whistles as much as a foghorn. TSE
One of the reasons I have been comfortable about laying Kemi Badenoch in the race to succeed Rishi Sunak is that she’s a lightweight, as Equalities Minister she was ready to jump on any Culture Wars bandwagon but was a near Trappist monk with her silence on other substantive issues such as the Post Office scandal. This clip emerging reassures me about my betting strategy, if she makes it to the final two her past comments will not go down…
One factor that may complicate swing in key states this year is the number of abortion ballots that are going on. For good or ill, the Dobbs v Jackson ruling by the Supreme Court has made this into a very significant political battleground. We have some evidence that this is not to the advantage of Republicans. In 2022 six states had abortion related constitutional referendums: California, Michigan, and Vermont to guarantee the right to an abortion; Kansas and Kentucky to…
I still think this is Robert Jenrick’s election to lose but James Cleverly remains a value bet in my view, I have found Tom Tugendhat’s campaign underwhelming and both Cleverly and Mel Stride could pick up the support that people thought would go to Tom Tugendhat. I am feel confident that my previous lays of Kemi Badenoch will prove profitable. TSE