What the public expects from the budget
TSE
The politics of envy
One of the main reasons I didn’t become a politician is my utter contempt for the public and when I see polling like this it reaffirms my decision. This polling is part of some wider polling by YouGov as we approach tomorrow’s budget, I feel sorry for the politicians that have to appease the public when they are in this mood. Increasing taxes on the rich despite it reducing the tax raised is a it like peeing your pants, it…
Ed Miliband has the support to become Prime Minister
If you’re not mentally prepared for the possibility of Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister then you should be. My logic since September 2024 when I tipped him at 100/1 was that he was very popular with Labour members who have the final say on who becomes Labour leader. This poll of Labour members reaffirms my thinking, as of 6:55 today you can back Ed Miliband as the next Prime Minister at 14s on Betfair and that still seems like value….
Are we about to see the greatest comeback since Lazarus?
I thought it was very unlikely that given the nature of her resignation that Angela Rayner could succeed Sir Keir Starmer now I am not sure and perhaps a punt on her to succeed Sir Keir Starmer might be worth it. TSE
The end of the Keir show
Ladbrokes have put a market on which quarter of 2026 Sir Keir Starmer will be replaced as Labour leader. If Starmer goes in 2026 (and there’s no certainty of that) I would expect him to go/be ousted in the aftermath of the devolved and location elections which take place in May which would be the trigger point and given how long the Labour leadership election would take I think the value might be in the latter two quarters of 2026…
For bar chart aficionados
TSE
Russia Today and the Fremen Mirage
It’s a truism of pop history that wealthy “civilised” states are always at a disadvantage, when fighting against poorer but tougher adversaries, whether those enemies are steppe horsemen, desert tribes, guerillas, or religious fanatics. In more modern times, the weakness of democratic nations (attempting as they do, to adhere to the Law of Armed Conflict, and being wary of heavy casualties), is contrasted the strength of dictatorships (who don’t need to worry about such things). There is a belief that…
Your Party might soon be the Just You Party
The farce that Your Party seem to deliver on a regular basis is good news for The Green Party of England & Wales and their leader Zack Polanski. TSE