This is why I consider More In Common & YouGov the gold standard pollsters
Happy Christmas everybody. TSE
He’s making a list, he’s checking it twice
Oddly this fun poll by Ipsos is quite damning for Sir Keir Starmer. He is seen as naughtier than Elon Musk and only wannabe royals Donald Trump and Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor beat him. As for the nice list what can I say about the cult like behaviour towards the NHS and royals. TSE
Kemi’s improving performance
Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis. I place great faith in leadership approval ratings and the one that really stands out is more people saying Nigel Farage has got worse than he has improved. If there is a poll showing the Tories ahead of Reform should make it less likely that Badenoch…
Wes Streeting displays absolutely no subtlety as he goes on manoeuvres
Wes Streeting during an interview with The Observer said ‘We’re not going to win the next election by trying to out-Reform Reform. That’s not who we are. Those aren’t our values and we’ve got to beat them, not join them.’ * He said Britain has taken a ‘massive economic hit’ from Brexit. ‘I’m really uncomfortable with the level of taxation in this country. We’re asking a lot of individual taxpayers, we’re asking a lot of businesses. We’ve got a level…
A nativity story like no other
I cannot help but think post hoc ergo propter hoc. TSE
Ed Miliband is 33/1 to be the next Chancellor
In the last fifteen months or so backing Ed Miliband at long odds has proven to be very profitable but I am not sure backing Ed Miliband at 33/1 as next Chancellor will be similarly profitable. My logic is underpinned by the fact Sir Keir Starmer & Labour have made much about Rachel Reeves being the first female Chancellor if Starmer does replace her then I suspect her replacement will be a woman which rules out Ed Miliband. However if…
Wise men vote Labour, donkeys & sheep vote Reform
TSE
The 2025 chutzpah award goes to Marco Longhi
Speaking to a former Labour SPAD earlier on this month they said to me every time a former Tory MP defects to Reform it increases the chances of Labour retaining power at the next election. Reform’s schtick is that it is the brand new thing to overturn the uniparty orthodoxy but the more they look like a retirement home for failed Tories then that message becomes less effective. Marco Longhi would like you to forget he was a Tory MP…