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Some movement this week, although still not much – and not very consistent. 538 have moved North Carolina from a slight Trump edge to a slight Harris edge, which widens her margin of victory in the Electoral College.Real Clear Politics, however have moved Pennsylvania from Harris to Trump, which has the effect of shifting their prediction to a Trump win 281-257. How are they managing to swim against the tide on PA? By ignoring the Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll which puts…

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This week is key to the Tory leadership contest as the four candidates make their pitch at conference, as we saw in 2005 one good speech can upend a race. Sadly for Kemi Badenoch conference so far has gone suboptimally for her with her comments about maternity pay which her opponents have seized upon as her Andrea Leadsom which has meant Badenoch has to spend most of yesterday explaining her comments, and to quote Ronald Reagan, if you’re explaining then…

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It is an interesting parallel. TSE

For some time many of us have derided Rasmussen for their highly partisan ways in a way that seems alien to us this side of the pond where the British Polling Council rules apply. This week’s story about how Rasmussen’s election law breaking coordination with the Trump camp is no surprise to me but it does have important betting implications. Nate Silver’s website continues to include Rasmussen in their averages whereas 538 removed Rasmussen some time ago, if you’re betting…

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Sadly for us punters there is no by-election as Rosie Duffield will sit as an independent MP. Duffield has had issues with Starmer that predate the election, for Starmer he must hope she is an outlier. TSE

PART 1. INTRODUCTION This is the latest in the Ideas series, following Solarpunk and Transhumanism. It deals with the “Blob”, the concept of an administrative state, a bureaucracy refractory to democratic control by governments. Such states result in state inertia as policies are added slowly but rarely removed. The citations will be given in the comments section. PART 2. DOES IT EXIST? Let’s get one thing straight at the beginning. Of course the Blob exists. The idea of a bureaucratic…

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Thanks to Audible I am listening to Lord Brady’s autobiography and it is a fascinating read by the man who oversaw four Tory leadership elections in six years and told Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Liz Truss their time was up as PM. This interview is worth a watch. TSE

One thing I am now betting heavily on is Harris to the win the popular, She is currenly 1.28 on Betfair so that is a 28% return in just over five weeks. TSE