For the better part of a decade shrewd punters made decent profits laying David Miliband in the next Labour leader markets and I suspect that’s going to be the case for Boris Johnson too. Plenty of us made money by laying Boris Johnson in the second Tory leadership contest of 2022 and the one to succeed Rishi Sunak will almost certainly yield profits too. One of the primary reasons I said Boris Johnson would make for a terrible Prime Minister…
I’ve not focussed or bet on the French election due the UK general election and US Presidential election because I cannot handle three massive elections at the same time. The result in France has major ramifications for the UK, the Bank of England has warned that Le Pen’s plans will lead to a Liz Truss style economic disaster that would impact the UK economy which would be sub-optimal for Sir Keir Starmer. I suspect if the Le Pen’s party wins…
Former YouGov Chairman Peter Kellner has published his predictions and if he’s right then there’s a superabundance of betting opportunities, in the constituencies by using his assumptions. If you’re a bit pragmatic then the 9s on the Tories winning 150 to 199 seats on Betfair and if you’re feeling that Kellner is right then the Tories are a buy on the spreads. TSE
If these rumours are true then there is a smattering of value in some of these in backing the non Labour candidate/laying Labour in the constituency markets on Betfair but this may well be expectations management to get the vote out. Even the greats such as Thatcher and Cameron lost only one seat each when they took power in 1979 and 2010 (excluding a single notional loss and a technical loss to the Speaker) and Tony Blair didn’t lose a…
I still think based on anecdotes I have heard from campaigners from Tory and Labour activists across the country that the supermajority talk will help the Tories at the margins. One of the reasons the Tories got walloped in 1997 was around 2 million voters from 1992 sat it out, so Sunak’s strategy will try and stop a repeat of that and the talk has given some left leaning voters a free pass to vote Lib Dem/Green/SNP etc because it…
One the key things to be a successful political gambler is the ability to be dispassionate and be happy to bet on outcomes one personally doesn’t want to see. I have to admit I struggle why anyone would want to for the Putin appeasing sort of a bunch of fruitcakes and loonies and closet racists mostly Reform but some polls say Reform will poll over 20% on July 4th. More In Common’s analysis on how people see themselves is interesting…
This might explain why the Tory twitter account is so dire, it is staffed by child labour. The reality is that a well funded campaign versus a relatively poorly funded campaign generally one sided results, something to bear in mind when betting on this election as the Tories pull resources to defend seats with 20,000 plus majorities.. TSE
The latest MRP confirms the patterns we’ve seen with others and not dissimilar to standard VI polls when put through Electoral Calculus, where we are not fazed when polls show the Tories sub 100 and/or Sir Ed Davey becoming Leader of the Opposition. Survation note One third of seats are currently decided by fewer than 10 points, and 132 are decided by fewer than 5 points. In these seats, Labour leads in 65, the Conservatives in 47, and the Liberal…