My word, if this MRP is accurate we should talking about the Lib Dems as the official opposition after the election. I expect a few other MRPs over the next few weeks, if they are anything like this then we will be entering a death loop for the Tories. It may also bugger up a few Tory leadership plans. TSE
The key point for me is the distribution of those now more/less likely to vote Trump, Trump takes a real hit with Independents which could be utterly damaging for his chances in November. TSE
Graphic: The Betfair US Presidential market over the last 5 days TSE
Trump taken down by a porn star and a Pecker When I heard the jury had reached a swift verdict my expectation was Trump to be found not guilty so this is quite the result. I am currently up to my eyeballs on drugs fighting a viral infection so I will need to think about this but my expectation is that this is sub-optimal for Trump given the number of voters who said they will not vote for a convicted…
Next week represents one of the few potential game changers in the election campaign, the first debate between Starmer and Sunak, on ITV1 next Tuesday, this head to head, moderated by Juliet Etchingham, will be to the detriment for the parties that are not part of the big two in Great Britain. Sunak goes in with low expectations so has the potential to surprise on the upside. Lawyer Starmer often wins PMQs and makes Sunak look petulant and not in…
Adam Drummond of Opinium has done an explainer on their methodology, it is useful for those who think the forecaster pollsters will be right and those unsure about the methodology. TSE
It has been an exciting day for political aficionados with the apparent purge of some left leaning Labour MPs with the most high profile being Diane Abbott. This YouGov poll shows the public do support Starmer’s decision although Labour voter’s disagree. I have never been a Diane Abbott fan. If there’s one thing that will really annoy me is hypocrisy on education and she’s got a lot of hypocrisy there as this link shows. She’s also made quite a few…
Graphic – Betfair over the last week on the overall majority market A week ago Rishi Sunak announced the election on the 4th of July and as we can see the first week of the campaign has hardly changed the expectation of gamblers. Starmer’s safety first approach is working so far. TSE