The Lib Dems jump 4 points Ipsos-Mori has just released its latest poll which follows the recent YouGov and ComRes surveys and shows a big increase in the Conservative lead. The shares, with comparisons on the last survey almost a month ago shows CON 41% (+1): LAB 32% (-3): LD 17% (+4). The survey was carried out by phone from November 23rd-27th so would have caught the first part of Labour’s dodgy donations scandal. The Tories will be delighted that…
New poll indicates an overall Cameron majority of 14 A new YouGov poll tonight for Channel 4 shows the extent of the damage that has been caused by the CD-rom affair and indicates an overall majority for David Cameron of 14. These are the shares compared with the last survey from the YouGov panel on Sunday: CON 41% (nc): LAB 32% (-3) LD 14% (+1) The nine point Tory margin over Labour is the biggest that has ever been recorded…
Has the media narrative turned against her? In little more than seven weeks we’ll have the first phase of the 2008 White House race with the Democratic and Republican caucuses in Iowa. That will be followed days later by the New Hampshire primary. Over the coming weeks there will be a build up of stories and betting activity as both parties start the process of deciding who should be their candidate in the election on the first Tuesday in November….
Cameron’s party now ahead on commons seats spread markets The main polling news overnight is a new ICM survey for the Sunday Express which has the following shares compared with the last poll by the firm nearly two weeks ago – CON 43% (+3): LAB 35% (nc): LD 15% (-3) So the main change is that three point shift from the Lib Dems to Cameron’s party reflecting, I would suggest, news coverage during the week following the Queen’s Speech. All…
Anybody who has just read Ben Brogan’s report that Sir Ian Blair might walk should call William Hill about a market that was launched two hours earlier. This is the email I got from the firm “William Hill are offering odds of 6/4 that Sir Ian Blair will cease to be Metropolitan Police Commissioner on or before December 31, 2007 – and 1/ 2 that he will still be in the job on that date. ‘Controversy is raging over whether…
What’s behind the Lib Dem price rally? If you feed the latest figures from the main pollsters that have reported since the Tory conference into the Anthony Wells commons seat calculator the highest number that you get for the Lib Dems is 21 MPs from the Populus survey three weeks ago. The latest ICM poll makes it 18 seats with both YouGov and Ipsos-Mori showing a bare 11 seat total. Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus site is even worse with his…
What’s the chance of either Dave or Gord being ousted? One of the bets I placed in the immediate aftermath of the Brown “no election” declaration was in Betfair’s “Next General Election – party leaders†market. Here you have to predict which of the Ming, Gord and Dave will still be there on polling day and at the time I suggested betting against, by laying, all three still being in post. That bet seemed to offer the most options and…
How the papers are reporting the “Magpie Budget” As I’ve discussed here many times my main form of political betting is to “buy” and “sell” the number of seats that Labour will get at the next election. Because this is spread-betting you can realise your profits or cut your losses at any time. You can also operate without having to lock up any cash up by opening a credit account. The critical thing, if you want to end up in…