What’s the chance of either Dave or Gord being ousted?
One of the bets I placed in the immediate aftermath of the Brown “no election” declaration was in Betfair’s â€œNext General Election – party leadersâ€ market. Here you have to predict which of the Ming, Gord and Dave will still be there on polling day and at the time I suggested betting against, by laying, all three still being in post.
That bet seemed to offer the most options and I got an average of 6-4. I have now reinvested part of the profits in betting against the option both Dave and Gord still being there at the general election.
Now I do not know who is the most vulnerable. Labour hasn’t quite yet got the blood-lust of the Tories, and, now the Lib Dems in disposing of leaders in the face of appalling opinion poll positions. But Blair, remember, was ousted by the rolling resignation plan that Brown put into effect in September 2006. (I know he denied it but then he said his election decision had nothing to do with the polls – Gord doesn’t “do” sincerity)
If Brown does manage to get back into the ascendancy and we return to consistent Tory poll deficits then I’m sure that Dave could be in trouble. There are many in his party who were fuming about the way Gord’s “election wheeze” created the unity in Blackpool.
I also think that Brown might be vulnerable. An albatross round his neck is the manner of his “non-election” to the Labour leadership. If the Tories continue with significant poll leads then there could be further murmurings and others could do to Gord what Gord did to Tony.
I got the equivalent of 3-1 against both Brown and Cameron not being there. A minimum one of them has to go for me to win.
Thanks to Paul Maggs for running the site while I was away. He’s done a great job. Thanks also to those who have contributed guest slots – I thought that Blair Freebairn’s piece last night had the most insightful and original thinking that I have seen on the general election.