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Category: Betting Call

If there’s a high turnout of Jewish voters in this key ward then LAB’s main London hope could be thwarted

If there’s a high turnout of Jewish voters in this key ward then LAB’s main London hope could be thwarted

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Sean Fear rates a Barnet CON hold a 50-50 chance I’ve just had a bet at 23/10 with Ladbrokes that the Conservatives will hold on to Barnet in the local elections on May 3rd. My reason is an assessment by long standing PB contributor, Sean Fear, that this is a 50-50 chance and in such cases the betting option that’s longer than evens is the value bet. Sean has long experience of London elections and I for one take notice…

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Alastair Meeks and his predictions for 2018

Alastair Meeks and his predictions for 2018

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I broke my habit of recent years last year and didn’t make any predictions for the coming year (I had no time at the end of last year).  That was fortunate because I would have got almost everything wrong.  However, it is a good discipline to make these predictions if only so that I can identify what I thought was going on and think about why I was wrong (or right) later on.  That way I might actually get better….

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By-election round up

By-election round up

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EXCLUSIVE: UKIP Leader Paul Nuttall admits his claims about losing close friends at #Hillsborough are false https://t.co/CtpCcAh7fA pic.twitter.com/jdzxz7C2aq — Radio City News (@RadioCityNews) February 14, 2017 Suppose it's time for this again. pic.twitter.com/ylBdwnxGF7 — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) February 14, 2017 Here's an old UKIP leaflet in which Paul Nuttall claims to be a "former professional footballer". He isn't. https://t.co/DTTrbEykeG pic.twitter.com/36NC9rGmJE — Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) February 14, 2017 Boost for Nuttall in Stoke Central. Nigel Farage refuses to campaign for himhttps://t.co/mkS0mCV95N…

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Latest YouGov poll suggests Remain might experience a caTAFFstrophe in Wales

Latest YouGov poll suggests Remain might experience a caTAFFstrophe in Wales

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Latest @YouGov poll suggests the potential for a caTAFFstrophe for Remain in Wales https://t.co/HQUHUNKFTw pic.twitter.com/aivZvkc5EM — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 7, 2016 Taking the 2/1 on Wales voting to Leave seems like the value option This morning there was an EU Referendum poll of Wales by YouGov, they found The two sides of the debate over the UK’s future in the EU are “dead level” in Wales,  political expert Roger Scully has said. Remain and Leave are both on 41%, with…

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How old men being available on Friday nights to do online polls might be skewing results

How old men being available on Friday nights to do online polls might be skewing results

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Very early responders to poll invites might not be representative After YouGov’s methodology changes last week ICM have announced their own measures as we approach the big day. This is the firm’s Martin Boon he explains it on the pollster’s website: “..Interviews tend to build up quickly on each Friday night, probably because certain types of people are more readily available and willing to participate. Indeed, there is a remarkable consistency across our online polls, with big Leave leads being…

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Alastair Meeks looking ahead to the GE2020

Alastair Meeks looking ahead to the GE2020

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The Tories are evens to get an overall majority in 2020. Why? asks Alastair Meeks We’ve been here before.  We languish under a Conservative government with a tiny majority, distracted by a frenzied and incomprehensible internal argument being conducted in raised voices over the EU (a subject about which the public largely do not care), staggering from wholly avoidable crisis to wholly avoidable crisis.  The public rightly see the Conservative party as horribly divided.  Disquiet is growing about their basic…

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Tissue Price on Osborne’s leadership ambitions and his EURef problem

Tissue Price on Osborne’s leadership ambitions and his EURef problem

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The Chancellor is 13/8 favourite to be Next Conservative Leader. He is 15/8 favourite to be Next Prime Minister. And on Betfair, you can get nearly 2/1 and 5/2 about the two propositions. But the folk wisdom on backing the next Tory leader is that the favourite never wins. That the winner is more about who he isn’t, than who he is. You have to go all the way back to Eden to find a clear case of the long-term…

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Next Labour Leader: Let’s do the Time Warp Again

Next Labour Leader: Let’s do the Time Warp Again

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Tissue Price on Mr. Corbyn’s successor Amongst the favourites in the betting for next Labour leader are non-runner Dan Jarvis (8/1), non-finisher Chuka Umunna (9/1), and non-MP David Miliband (a stand out 20/1 with Stan James, otherwise 10/1). All are broadly on the right of the party, though admittedly Jarvis is something of a blank canvas. And yet the next leader will either be arranged by the PLP, in the Michael Howard manner, or they’ll be elected by broadly the same membership that…

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