Should you be a Labour buyer or Labour seller?

Should you be a Labour buyer or Labour seller?

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    How the papers are reporting the “Magpie Budget”

As I’ve discussed here many times my main form of political betting is to “buy” and “sell” the number of seats that Labour will get at the next election. Because this is spread-betting you can realise your profits or cut your losses at any time. You can also operate without having to lock up any cash up by opening a credit account.

The critical thing, if you want to end up in profit, is to be able to judge the public mood, without your views being influenced by your own personal prejudices. What is central is the media, which is why when political stories are dominating the front pages I like to reproduce a selection like the four featured above.

    So the big question now is whether the media is turning on Labour and whether this will be sustained.

If so then selling the number of seats on the commons spread markets might be a good idea.

As one of the site’s regulars, StJohn, noted on the overnight thread “Having only relatively recently got into political betting I have started to realise a number of important points..Firstly and most obviously how important the polls are. When the polls move, generally the betting markets follow. Stands to reason. But what has surprised me is how reactive the polls are to short term events as reported by the media. I had wrongly assumed more solidity and intransigence in the public’s views in respect of the different political parties. But the opposite appears to be the case. Once the media goes big on a story the public and the polls react significantly after a predictable lag period..So here’s my point… What happens is less important than how the majority of the media choose to report it. Over a sustained period the media can and do determine the public mood. The media reporting during the Brown honeymoon period seemed to me quite out of line from what appeared fair and balanced…And now the narrative appears to be changing.”

I think that this morning’s coverage gives a pretty good indication of the way the media is viewing Brown’s government. My gut reaction on the previous thread that Brown and Darling had got this wrong seems to be echoed elsewhere. StJohn is right so when I return from the US next week I expect to be “selling” Labour seats.

For those who find the betting aspects complicated can I plug my book – “The Political Punter – How to make money betting on politics”. Click on the link below.

Paul Maggs returns as guest editor. I’m off to Vancouver and Seattle on business tomorrow and once again Paul Maggs will be standing in as guest editor. I will have my lap-top and might write the odd article or two – but Paul will be in the driving seat from tomorrow until a week today.

Today’s PMQs thread There will be a special thread for today’s question time which will be published at 11.45am. PMQs itself start at noon.

Mike Smithson

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