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The power and politics of pardon

The power and politics of pardon

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Under the US constitution, an American president has a virtually untrammelled power to pardon, or commute the sentence of, anyone convicted of a Federal offence (but not offences under State law). It is a power completely personal to the president, who can exercise it for any reason, or for no good reason, and it has been used surprisingly often: 1,927 times by Barack Obama, for example. Although there is a government department, the Office of the Pardon Attorney, through which…

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Trump’s tantrums won’t cost him the presidency – yet

Trump’s tantrums won’t cost him the presidency – yet

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But the NYT article will drive him deeper into the bunker Dysfunctional doesn’t begin to describe the White House. The high level of turnover among staff, the erratic decision-making, the presidential public streams-of-consciousness made with zero empathy for their subjects, the failure to actually deliver on key policies like The Wall: we knew all this and have done pretty much since Day 1, if not before. What we didn’t know before the sensational New York Times article[1] was the extent…

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PB Video Analysis: Will Donald Trump be Re-Elected in 2020?

PB Video Analysis: Will Donald Trump be Re-Elected in 2020?

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdakzE5R9n8 So, after many economics and finance related posts, I thought why not do a politics one? It’s a simple question: will President Trump be re-elected in 2020? But while the answer will – Schrodinger’s cat-like – resolve itself when the box is opened in two years time, for now the answer is unknowable. Which is the stronger force: an improving economy or the drip, drip of scandals? What matters more: who the Democrats choose or whether inflation returns? And…

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Irrespective of whether there’s an impeachment move it’s going to be harder for Trump to win again at WH2020

Irrespective of whether there’s an impeachment move it’s going to be harder for Trump to win again at WH2020

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Three points about Trump:1) Virtually no one who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 is for him today;2) About 37% of Trump's 2016 voters are ambivalent about him and are far from hard core;3) Cohen's implication of Trump will have a corrosive effect on those ambivalent Trump voters — Geoff Garin (@geoffgarin) August 22, 2018 Is there value betting that he won’t be re-nominated? It is hard to take any other view than that the last few days have not…

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The first forecast for the midterms gives the Democrats a 75% chance of winning back the House

The first forecast for the midterms gives the Democrats a 75% chance of winning back the House

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The US election forecasting site 538 issues its first projection for the House Race in this year's midterms.https://t.co/7Fgl3lPy64 pic.twitter.com/ZFoQe2eReF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 17, 2018 On Betfair punters make it a 61% punt In spite of all that is going on in UK politics at the betting markets here continue to make the US midterms in November the most popular betting event. This is not surprising. There’s a high UK interest in US and the White House races can…

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The Democrats move up sharply in the House majority betting after the GOP won the Ohio special election by a margin of less than 1%

The Democrats move up sharply in the House majority betting after the GOP won the Ohio special election by a margin of less than 1%

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BetData.IO In the US all eyes are on the midterms in November which will the first big electoral test for Trump since he won WH2016 nearly two years ago. Overnight there was a special election in Ohio in a congressional district won by Trump with a 12% margin two years ago. The Republicans hung on but the margin was less than 1%. The President had invested an enormous amount in the race and while he’ll be pleased by the victory…

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Tonight’s special congressional election in Ohio could be a good pointer to November’s mid-terms

Tonight’s special congressional election in Ohio could be a good pointer to November’s mid-terms

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There’s a big “special” Congressional election ta1king place in Ohio’s 12th district which was won by the Republicans by 12 points in 2012 and 2016 – the former by Romney and the latter by Trump. The President has clearly earmarked this as a must hold and has played a key part in the campaign. The signs are that it could be close. The two final polls suggest that this is a toss-up. Emerson has the Democratic contender 1% ahead while…

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House majority betting moves sharply to the Democrats after 3 bad midwest state polls for Trump/GOP

House majority betting moves sharply to the Democrats after 3 bad midwest state polls for Trump/GOP

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The three states, Michigan,Minnesota and Wisconsin were surveyed by NBC News/Marist polls and are,of course, in the part of the US where Trump very much exceeded expectations at WH2016. It was, of course, the mid-west where Trump won the presidency and state polling from here is going to be looked at very closely. If these do represent represent current opinion then the Republicans are going to struggle in November’s midterm elections when all seats in the House of Representatives are…

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